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There is not a lot separating these two teams. Both teams had steady Apertura records, which is not saying a lot because neither team made a splash in the previous season.
Pumas UNAM finished 11th in the table with a record of five wins, six draws and six defeats. That helped them gather a steady 21 points in 17 matches. They will be absolutely desperate to ensure they can build on that middling performance in the Clausura phase of this Liga MX season.
When a match is as tight as this, it is always best to back the draw because neither team has a clear and apparent advantage. That is true in this case as well, especially considering Toluca is a slightly more reliable team but that advantage is canceled out by Pumas UNAM hosting this match at home.
In the Apertura phase of the Liga MX, Pumas UNAM had a disappointing campaign, especially offensively as they managed to score just 17 goals. That equated to a goal average of just one per game, which is not close to enough on most occasions.
In that season, Pumas UNAM relied heavily on two players for offensive production as they transitioned from the middle third to the final third. Alan Mozo chipped in with five assists while Juan Ignacio Dinenno managed four assists. These two were inspirational in ensuring that Pumas UNAM had enough depth and strength in the final third.
The team will have to find some more avenues of offensive prowess, not just in the final third but also in helping create quality chances. As Jose Mourinho famously said of Paul Pogba while managing Manchester United, it was not just about who scored the goal but also about the player that initiated that transition with a crisp pass or a well-timed run.
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It is not impossible for a team like Toluca to make solid progress into the top four, especially if they can continue their recent proficiency in the final third. In the Apertura phase of the Liga MX, they finished sixth by winning six games, drawing five and then losing another five.
That helped the team collect 24 points. At one stage, Toluca were looking at the top four but they finished the season in poor form, picking up just three points in their final five games. They suffered two defeats and drew three other games in that period, which eventually ended up as the difference between a top four finish and sixth in the standings.
Toluca have enough on both ends of the pitch to stay relevant this season as well. Last season, they scored 22 goals but also conceded as many. A goal difference of zero is not great but Toluca managed to pick up a sixth finish despite that.
This is always a tricky question in a league like the Liga MX but let us break down the numbers to help find an answer.
From a betting standpoint, there is always value in backing under 2.5 goals in the Liga MX. That is because this is traditionally a slower league as compared to the MLS or even other leagues in Europe.
Between these two teams, you might want to consider various factors as well. Pumas UNAM are one of the slower teams in the Mexican league as evidenced from their records in the Apertura phase. While they conceded 23 goals in 17 matches, they scored just 17 goals.
That gives them average goals per game at just over two per game. That average is still below 2.5 per game. That is important because on average, you will find that there are more games that favor the under than the over in the goals market.
Toluca are not much different. They scored and conceded 22 goals in 17 matches in the Apertura, which translates to an average of just over 2.5 goals. Even though that average is higher than the handicap, you can work the probabilities and likelihood in markets such as these when the goals market is as tight as this one.
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If you were looking for another betting market, then the under would be the ideal choice in this match. A 1-1 result is not unexpected, and would be a lucrative option but still highly possible.
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|Pumas vs Toluca Infromation|
|Teams||Pumas UNAM vs Toluca|
|Location||Estadio Olimpico Universitario|
|Time||Monday, January 10 at 10.00 PM EST onwards|
|How to watch||Univision networks TUDN and UniMas, ESPN Deportes, Telemundo and Fox Deportes|
With an interest in strategy and mathematics, applying that to sports writing was the natural progression. A writer at night and the founder of a gaming company, Nikhil’s previous experience includes working with ESPN for five years. His specialization includes soccer, basketball, tennis, and esports betting. Email: [email protected]More info on Nikhil Kalro
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