When you sign-up through links on our site, we may earn an affiliate commission. Learn more >
Odds taken from Bet365.
Pick: Tigres UANL to win. (-208)
Bet $20 Win $200 in Free Bets
21+ CO, VA, MI Only | Terms and conditions apply
The regular season is over, and it’s time for the playoffs. Tigres UANL made a great start to this season but tailed off in the middle – ultimately ending the season in seventh place. This isn’t bad, but Tigres were expected to enter the top four at one point in the season, so it’s a bit of a disappointment as far as they are concerned.
On the other hand, Puebla just did enough to enter the playoffs but haven’t looked solid enough to suggest that they’ll cause an upset in this fixture, and the odds table feels the same. Tigres are massive favorites heading into – so much so that a draw has extremely rewarding odds.
For all of Tigres’ troubles this season, they don’t give away many chances, and Puebla’s attack doesn’t look up to the task of causing problems for such a solid defensive side. It’s best to go safe with this match and look for value in some of the other playoff fixtures.
Tigres, unsurprisingly, have the better head-to-head record with 13 wins, seven losses, and eight draws. Puebla, have won two of the last five matches between the two sides, but Tigres won 1-0 when the two sides met less than two weeks ago.
Andre-Pierre Gignac’s 49th-minute penalty was the difference between the two sides. Tigres thoroughly deserved the victory. They took 21 shots to Puebla’s 11, with six on target compared to Puebla's two. Tigres also had 56% of the possession.
Of course, winning by a margin of one goal never feels convincing enough, but this was one of the few occasions were there was little doubt about who the better team was.
Tigres match last weekend against Leon was always going to be a strange one. The two sides have a massive CONCACAF Champions League semifinal second-leg tie in a few days. There was never any doubt that Tigres would prioritize the knockout game since they’d already qualified for the playoffs.
Tigres had beaten Leon 2-1 a few days back in the first-leg, so it’s hard to make anything of this loss. Of course, Leon will take a lot of encouragement from the win, but Tigres can’t let this loss affect them too deeply since they didn’t play their most potent squad.
Alfonso Alvarado gave Leon the lead in the 17th minute, and Brian Rubio made it 2-0 just before the half-time whistle. Hector Yael Uribe Guevara made it 3-0 in the 67th minute to confirm the three points for Leon.
Tigres should be too strong for Puebla on the weekend, regardless of how the second-leg semifinal goes.
Tigres have conceded 17 goals this campaign. The 3-0 loss to Leon last week with a weakened starting XI didn’t help, but despite that, the defensive numbers look extremely solid. Igor Lichnovsky and Diego Reyes have been solid as a rock at the back and are the sort of pairing that can get Tigres to the final stages of the competition.
Playoff games are often won on the tightest of margins, and they’re the sort of defenders who can make that little difference in the biggest of games. They’ve already shown it in the CONCACAF Champions League this season, where they’re one game away from entering the finals.
This defensive strategy only works because of Andre-Pierre Gignac, of course. Gignac has arguably been the top forward in Liga MX in the last few seasons, so they don’t have to worry too much about goals and can focus on keeping things tight and letting Gignac do the business up front.
Puebla saved their best game of the season for the final week of the regular season. They showed all their attacking intent this game, as the 5-2 scoreline suggests. Federico Mancuello’s 13th-minute strike kicked things off, but he was unfortunate to put the ball into his own net 12 minutes to level the scores.
Diego de Buen saved his blushes with a strike in the 32nd minute to make it 2-1. It looked like the match could go either way at half-time, but Guillermo Ayala ensured that it would go Puebla’s way in the second half with a brace. Ayala scored in quick succession (55’ and 61’) to make it 4-1.
Braian Romero got one back for Club Tijuana in the 68th minute before Diego Barragan made it 5-2 to Puebla from the penalty spot in the 77th minute. Puebla outplayed Club Tijuana all game with 56% possession and 25 shots on goal to Tijuana’s 14. It was a cracking match and a cracking result for Puebla.
Puebla's defense has let them down all season. They have conceded 32 goals in the league this season, and their 5-2 win against Club Tijuana also showcased some of their defensive frailties. They are fun to watch because they approach every game positively, which is clear in the 26 goals they’ve scored his season, but this approach tends to get punished in big playoff ties.
It’s also impressive that they’ve scored more league goals than Tigres this season without a marksman like Gignac on their side, but a big part of their success has also been the home form, which isn’t something they’ll have in this tie.
Even when the two sides played each other a few days back, they were far too open, and Tigres’ profligacy in front of goal was the only reason Puebla didn’t lose that match by a bigger margin. Of course, Puebla will suggest that Tigres might have another game of the sort in the coming week, but this isn’t the prudent way to approach games, and it’s hard to see them sustain that sort of luck in another game against Tigres.
They must start this match on the front foot and attempt to nick an early goal. It won’t be easy since Tigres have an incredible defense, and Puebla might leave themselves a bit exposed at the start of the game by taking this approach, but this is the best way for them to come out of this tie victorious.
Impressive range of bonuses
Large selection of games
Bet $100 get $100 Bet Credit
21+ | T&Cs apply
Wide range of betting options
Top notch customer service
Promo Code 'SPORTS'
$500 Free Bet
21+ | VA only | Gambling problem? Call 1-800-532-3500
Guadalajara vs Tigres Odds: Gignac’s Form is a Bit of a Concern
Liga MX | 26 May, 2023 | Nikhil Kalro
Tigres vs Guadalajara Prediction: Both Teams Have Entered the Finals Against All Odds
Liga MX | 23 May, 2023 | Nikhil Kalro
Club America vs Guadalajara: Guadalajara Are Capable of Causing an Upset
Liga MX | 19 May, 2023 | Nikhil Kalro
Bet $20 Win $200 in Free Bets
21+ CO, VA, MI Only | Terms and conditions apply
With an interest in strategy and mathematics, applying that to sports writing was the natural progression. A writer at night and the founder of a gaming company, Nikhil’s previous experience includes working with ESPN for five years. His specialization includes soccer, basketball, tennis, and esports betting. Email: [email protected]More info on Nikhil Kalro
© Rebel Penguin ApS 2023 (a subsidiary of Gaming Innovation Group Inc.)
We support responsible gambling. If you feel like you're losing control over your gambling experience, call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ, PA, WV), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-522-4700 (NV), 1-800-522-4700 (CO, TN), 1-855-2CALLGA (IL), 1-800-270-7117 (MI).
WSN.com is run by iGaming Cloud Inc (a Gaming Innovation Group Subsidiary) and is registered with the New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement (DGE) under affiliate vendor ID 89744, with the Indiana Gaming Commission (IGC) under certificate of registration number SWR-000148, approved by the Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board as a gaming service provider, under certificate registration number 117656-1, possesses a Vendor Minor sports betting license from the Colorado Limited Gaming Control Commission (account number 94414163), granted a vendor registration number VR007603-20-001 by the Michigan Gaming Control Board, an interim Sports Wagering Supplier license, under license number SWS 066, issued by the West Virginia Lottery Commission, a sports betting vendor registration, under registration number #100400, issued by the Director of Gaming Licensing and Investigations of the Virginia Lottery to operate in the State of Virginia, and a Vendor Registration issued by the Sports Wagering Committee of the Tennessee Education Lottery Corporation.
Advertising disclosure: WSN contains links to online retailers on its website. When people click on our affiliate links and make purchases, WSN earns a commission from our partners, including ESPN and various sportsbooks.