Best MLB Home Run Props Today: Which Sluggers Are Poised to Take Advantage of Vulnerable Pitchers

Monday’s home run picks are a little less about the players we think will go deep and a little more about the pitchers who are likely to give up home runs. There are a few pitchers on the mound who look vulnerable ot the long ball. We used that to guide our home run props.

For Monday, the odds for our home run picks are from FanDuel Sportsbook. FanDuel is great for a lot of reasons, and it’s particularly great for new users, who can receive $150 in bonus bets if they win their first wager.

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Home Run Picks for Monday, June 30

Aaron Judge Anytime Home Run (+150) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Max Scherzer will face Judge and the Yankees on Monday, making just his third start of the season. If there is one thing that has plagued Scherzer in his career, especially in recent years, it’s giving up home runs. He’s long tried to overpower hitters, so when he makes a mistake, good hitters tend to hit it a long way. In his last full season in 2023, Scherzer allowed 28 home runs.

Naturally, Judge has homered against Scherzer in the past, going 4 for 14 with one homer in his career against the three-time Cy Young winner. Judge is also coming off a two-homer game on Sunday. Of his four multi-homer games this season, he homered in the following game twice, so it’s not far-fetched for Judge to go deep again.

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Vinnie Pasquantino Home Run (+540) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Pasquantino is also a target on Monday largely because of the pitcher. Seattle’s George Kirby has allowed seven home runs in his seven starts this year. His 5.40 ERA is also a cause for concern. That points us toward Kansas City’s best power hitter, which is Pasquantino.

Of his 12 home runs this season, Pasquantino has hit eight of them on the road, so this game being in Seattle is favorable for his home run chances. More importantly, 11 of the 12 have come against right-handed pitching. Despite just five career at-bats against Kirby, Pasquantino is in good shape against a pitcher who’s been plagued by the long ball this year.

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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Home Run (+480) at FanDuel Sportsbook

With a 2.92 ERA, Carlos Rodon doesn’t seem like an ideal pitcher to give up a home run. However, he’s allowed 13 long balls this season, so he’s been surprisingly vulnerable to the long ball. He’s also had plenty of problems in the past with Guerrero, who is 8 for 12 with two doubles and a home run against Rodon.

That’s an impressive track record against any pitcher, not to mention a signal that Guerrero is capable of taking Rodon deep. Guerrero has also crushed lefties this year, with a .537 slugging percentage against southpaws. Plus, all four of his home runs in June have come over his last 12 games, so Guerrero’s power numbers are finally showing up, making him a good target given his past success against Rodon.

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Junior Caminero Anytime Home Run (+350) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The Rays rank 13th in home runs this year, but are tied for the fourth-most homers at home. The triple-A ballpark they play in is yielding a lot of long balls. Naturally, Caminero has hit 13 of his 20 home runs at home, making him a player to watch whenever the Rays are home.

Of course, the 21-year-old rookie has no previous track record against Jacob Lopez, who starts for the A’s on Monday. But Lopez has given up six home runs this year, all since May 23. In a small ballpark, the young lefty could be vulnerable, making Caminero a good pick to hit a home run on Monday.

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