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Best MLB Bets This Weekend: California Dreamin’

Written by: Michael Savio
Published April 13, 2024
10 min read
Best MLB Bets This Weekend 04 13 2024

There are a lot of great MLB bets on the table this weekend, but the best come from the Golden State. Our favorite bets today involve a matchup between the Giants and Rays, plus an NL West battle between the Padres and Dodgers. 

Below, we will share our favorite bets for these games, along with the insights you’ll need to bet confidently on them this weekend. We’ll be using odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook. If you haven’t given BetMGM a try, you can earn a $1,500 First Bet Offer* when you sign up using promo code WSNMGM.

For more betting opportunities, check out our list of the best MLB betting sites and curated list of MLB promos and bonuses.

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Best MLB Bets This Weekend: Giants vs. Rays (4:10 PM EST)

Under 7.5 (-105 at BetMGM Sportsbook)

This is a lopsided matchup between them, but we are locking in the under at BetMGM. One reason for that is how these lineups are playing. The Giants are struggling as predicted, ranking twentieth in runs scored (53). The Rays have far more talent but only rank fifteenth in the league in runs scored (55). While we expect Tampa to find their bats soon, it won’t happen with Logan Webb on the mound for San Francisco. 

Webb’s numbers in 2024 aren’t great across three starts, but that’s inflated by a tough road start against the Dodgers. LA has one of the best lineups in recent history, so we are looking at his other two starts. They both came against the Dodgers, with Webb allowing four runs across 13 innings. He allowed too many hits, but Webb’s past success tells us that won’t last. In 2023, the Giants’ starter finished with a 3.25 ERA and an impressive 1.07 WHIP. Given the Rays struggles with their bats, look for Webb to deliver his best start of the young season today.

The Rays will have Ryan Pepiot on the mound tonight. They acquired the former Dodgers prospect last season after he missed most of the 2023 season with an injury. While he was hit hard by the Rangers in his first start, he showed why the Rays grabbed him last weekend. He threw six scoreless innings last Sunday, allowing just three hits and zero walks. He also struck out 11. He’ll be up against an underwhelming Giants’ offense today, setting him to register another gem.

Bet on Under 7.5 at BetMGM CTA icon

Best MLB Bets This Weekend: Padres vs. Dodgers (9:10 PM EST)

Over 9 (-115 at BetMGM Sportsbook)

What do you get when you combine two elite lineups with two unproven starters? The answer is a LOT of runs. While this is a fairly large total, we think these teams will easily surpass it tonight. The Padres offense has been better of late, scoring 9+ runs twice in their previous series. The Dodgers haven’t been quite as good, but they have a far better lineup that will feast on an inexperienced Padres starter. 

San Diego will have Matt Waldron making the start tonight. The 27-year-old made his MLB with the Padres last season, starting in six games and appearing in eight. He had some strong starts, but they all came against the league’s worst offenses. That trend has carried into 2024, as he was sharp against the Giants but was hammered hard by the Cardinals. He didn’t last more than 5 ⅓ innings in either appearance, and we don’t expect that to change tonight.

The Dodgers will send young Gavin Stone to the mound tonight. He is one of the Dodgers' top pitching prospects, and he is entering his first full season as part of a starting rotation. It hasn’t gone great so far, but he has faced two good teams, the Cubs and the Cardinals. He threw for just eight innings in those two starts while allowing eight runs on 13 hits. Stone will finally settle in, but that won’t happen against Fernando Tatis Jr. and the Padres tonight.

Bet on Over 9 at BetMGM CTA icon


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Michael Savio

485 Articles

Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid and has turned that into a successful career. He cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams along with his Alma Mater Arizona State. He specializes in baseball betting, but has experience in football, basketball, and hockey as well. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children.

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