NL West Winner Odds 2025: Negative Regression Looms Large Over the Dodgers

• The Los Angeles Dodgers odds to win the division title have steadily declined

• Tyler Glasnow has joined Blake Snell on the Dodgers injury report

• The San Diego Padres rank top-6 in Team Pitching ERA and in Defensive Efficiency

Even though the Los Angeles Dodgers entered the year listed as a heavy betting favorite to win their fourth straight division title, the NL West may be closer than it appears. The Arizona Diamondbacks offense are projected to be one of the best units in the league while the San Diego Padres rival the Dodgers in terms of metrics on both sides of the field. This may lead to an exciting race until the very end with serious playoff seeding implications on the line.

MLB NL West Winner Odds

Odds taken from BetMGM Sportsbook. Sign up for BetMGM with our promo code WSNSPORTS and claim the following welcome bonus: Get Up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets*.

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MLB NL West Winner Predictions

Just when it seemed like the Los Angeles Dodgers were hitting their stride, injuries reared their ugly head with Tyler Glasnow joining Blake Snell on the injury report. That leaves the reigning World Series champions dangerously thin at pitcher which hurts their chances of playing at a competitive level on defense. Generating defensive production was already a struggle for the Dodgers as their back end currently ranks below league average in Defensive Efficiency.

If regression affects the Dodgers current rate of wins, then that opens the door for the San Francisco Giants to break out of their tie for first and create some separation at the top of the standings. Even with their offense struggling to make contact and get on base at a league average rate, the Giants have been able to remain competitive in their contests due to their high level of play on the mound as their rotation currently ranks eighth in Team Pitching ERA.

MLB NL West Winner Pick: San Diego Padres (+650) at BetMGM

While San Diego’s offense hogs most of the spotlight, their defense has been very productive as the Padres rank top-6 in Team Pitching ERA and in Defensive Efficiency. With their offense also grading out well in Contact Rate, the Padres get the benefit of playing in low variance contests which increases their chances of winning at a high rate. Should injuries continue to hamper the Dodgers, then expect the Padres to leap over them for first in the NL West division standings.

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How to Bet on the MLB NL West Winner

With the Los Angeles Dodgers listed as a heavy betting favorite to win the NL West, value may reside on the other teams as their true odds of winning the division are closer then what oddsmakers have them listed at. This allows you to take a flier on a long shot, as well as buy some time to potentially hedge your wager on the Dodgers should they get off to a slow start.

To help identify who may be able to compete with the Dodgers for the division title, it’s important to look at their metrics on both sides of the field. Target teams who rank above league average in Team Total Hits, RBIs, Total Runs Scored, On Base Percentage, Team Pitching ERA, and Defensive Efficiency.

How to Read MLB NL West Winner Odds

Before placing a wager on the NL West winner market, it’s vital to know how the listed odds work. If you bet on the San Diego Padres at their early season odds of +700, then a $100 wager would profit you $700 if they win the division title.

If you wait to see if they get out to a sizable lead and are listed with a minus sign in front of their odds (-125 for example), then you would need to wager $125 to profit $100. Reminder, always shop around before placing a bet as odds can drastically vary between each sportsbook.

Where to Bet on the MLB NL West Winner

BetMGM has been one of the top choices for the NL West winner market as their odds normally beat out the rest of the apps. If you have not signed up yet with BetMGM, you can claim the welcome offer: Get Up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets after creating an account with the WSN promo code WSNSPORTS.

As for the official betting partner of the MLB, FanDuel Sportsbook is giving new users the following offer: Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets if Your Bet Wins after they create an account and place their first wager. No promo code is required; new users just need to complete the registration process and win their first bet of at least $5 on any valid FanDuel market.

MLB NL West Winner History

The NL West has been dominated by the Los Angeles Dodgers as they have won the division 11 times in the past 12 years. Their recent stretch has helped pad their lead for first as the Dodgers also lead the division with 22 total NL West division titles.

The San Francisco Giants were the last team to upset the Dodgers when they won the NL West in 2021. Arizona and San Diego have not been as fortunate as the Diamondbacks last title came in 2011 while the Padres were in 2006. As for Colorado, the Rockies have not won the division title since joining the NL West in 1993.