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The Los Angeles Dodgers are still the favorite to win the NL West
The Dodgers odds to win the division have steadily declined since the last update to this article
The Padres are in second place in the NL West yet have the fourth best odds to win it
After being listed as high as -1100 to win the NL West in the last edition of this bi-weekly updated article, the Dodgers odds are now as low as -425. That is due to a roller coaster of production in their past two weeks of play, especially from their defense and regressing pitching staff. Even with only a one-game lead in the division, the Dodgers are still pegged as a heavy favorite due to their star power and elite depth that can withstand the turbulence of a full MLB season. With their odds dropping back down, the Dodgers are worth a wager should you have not taken them yet at this point of the season.
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After a slow start to the season, the Arizona Diamondbacks have managed to climb back up the division standings and are currently just one game back of first place. This is in large part of their offense, ranking top-3 in total team hits and first in runs scored and RBIs. Better yet, they have also witnessed an uptick in production with their pitching after ranking well below average in team total ERA. The issue is that the Diamondbacks pitchers still struggle with opposing hits allowed, indicating that negative scoring regression looms large. It’s not enough for their offense alone to upset the Dodgers for the division title, desperately needing help from their defense to round out as a complete team.
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It’s been a disappointing start to the season for the San Francisco Giants, a team that was thought of to rival the Dodgers for the division title as an intriguing sleeper pick. They were the last team to do so back in 2021, yet they have failed to find that magic at this point of the season. Their lackluster start can be pointed towards both sides of the field, ranking well below average in team hits and pitching ERA. A shocking site to see after bolstering their batting depth, as well as adding former Cy Young award winner Blake Snell to their pitching rotation. There is still plenty of season left to be played, yet until the Giants can show any sort of consistency, then they are a pass in this market.
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Even though the Padres have managed to hold on to their second-place mark since the last edition of this series, sportsbooks are still skeptical of their long-term outlook by having them fourth on the oddsboard. Projection sites are in line with the sportsbooks, having the Padres pegged as the fourth-place finisher per PECOTA and FanGraphs. A big reason for their early season success stems from their hot bats, ranking top-10 in total team hits, one base percentage, and total runs scored. Their pitching metrics dip down to more league average, meaning negative regression may be looming large should their offense regress back towards their expected preseason means.
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The Rockies were in large part thought of as a bottom dweller in the division and that still may have been too kind as they should be more so thought of as a bottom dweller to the entire league. After an embarrassing 5-17 start to their season, the Rockies have only seen their division odds drastically plummet. A case can be made that they are already out of contention, especially as they fail to field any sort of viable production from both their offense and defense. They rank dead last in total pitching ERA by a comfortable margin, as well as below average in total hits, runs, and on-base percentage. They are an immediate pass in this market.
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Even during their slump the past two weeks, the Dodgers are still wildly thought of as the heavy favorite to win their division. They field the most dangerous top of the order with their batting lineup, fielding two batters who are in the top-10 for most hits and top-3 as a unit for total team hits, runs scored, and on-base percentage. It’s their defense that has disappointed per preseason expectations, a unit that was widely believed to reside at the top of the board after making it their mission this offseason to beef it up with the additions of Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow. Their slump has created value for a mid-season bet to be placed, taking them at a discount before positively swinging back toward their expected mean.
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The NL West has been the Los Angeles Dodgers division to lose over the past handful of years, winning the last four of five with the Giants upsetting them in 2021. With a commanding lead over the rest of the division with 21 division titles, the Dodgers can add on to their lead as the heavy favorite to win it in 2024. Even with only a one game lead against the Padres and Diamondbacks, season long projections have them comfortably pulling away due their elite depth on both sides of the field. Barring a catastrophe, expect history to repeat itself with the Dodgers in a great position to make it three division titles in a row.
Year | Winner |
---|---|
2023 | Los Angeles Dodgers |
2022 | Los Angeles Dodgers |
2021 | San Francisco Giants |
2020 | Los Angeles Dodgers |
2019 | Los Angeles Dodgers |
When making any type of wager, it’s important to know how to read the listed odds. Especially for a heavy favorite like the Los Angeles Dodgers as the minus sign (-) indicates that you would need to tie in $425 to win $100 at -425 odds. Should you like one of the underdogs instead like the Arizona Diamondbacks at +1200, then a $100 wager would profit you $1,200 should they win the NL West.
Having access to multiple sportsbooks is important in more ways than one. Each book has their own listed odds, giving you the ability to line shop. That is especially vital when wagering on a massive favorite like the Dodgers, getting them anywhere from -425 to -700. That is a difference of $375 in a tied-up wager while returning the same amount of profit.
Each book also has their own unique new user sign-up bonus, giving their users a huge head start with bonus bets heading into the start of the MLB regular season. FanDuel Sportsbook for example is giving new users $150 in bonus bets for simply creating an account and placing their first bet of at least $5 wagered.
BetMGM | Caesars | FanDuel | |
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Los Angeles Dodgers NL West Winner Odds | -550 | -700 | -650 |
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Kody Malstrom is a sports betting journalist with six years of writing experience in the industry. He covers an abundance of sports, including College Football, NFL, College Basketball, NBA, and more. Born and raised in Michigan, Kody is a devoted Detroit Sports fan and spends his Sundays rooting for the Detroit Lions while telling himself this year is the year they win it all. When not staring at betting markets, Kody spends his free time at the beach in the summer or snowboarding in the winter.
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