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Best MLB Bets Today | MLB Picks, August 17

Written by: Michael Savio
Published August 17, 2023
13 min read
Best MLB Bets Today August 17 23

New York Mets vs St. Louis Cardinals

Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Check out other MLB betting sites for more betting opportunities.    

My Pick: Mets -1.5 

We have built ourselves a nice bankroll from betting against Adam Wainwright (3-7, 8.78 ERA) this season, and we will add to it again tonight. The 41-year-old is likely in his final season and would have been removed from the rotation if the Cardinals had any playoff hopes. Wainwright has been at his worst at home this season (9.26 ERA) and during night games (10.45 ERA), both of which will be in play tonight. Wainwright has a 33.75 ERA through two August starts and we see that number going up again today.

Speaking of the Mets, their nightmare season continues. The good news is they took their first series of the month earlier this week against the Pirates. Their recent success has been due to their offense, which has scored at least seven runs in three of their last four games. We know they have the offensive talent to be great, but they have struggled to put it all together, and score runs consistently. Expect to see their recent offensive success continue tonight with Wainright on the mound. The Mets' batting average is almost 20 points higher on the road this season, and that will help them do a lot of damage early en route to a win.

The final reason we like the Mets' run line tonight is Jose Quintana (0-4, 3.03 ERA). The veteran made his season debut a month ago after missing the first half with an injury. Quintana has been stellar since, posting four quality starts in his five games. He has held opponents to three or fewer runs in each of his starts, and we think he can do so again against the Cardinals. While St Louis’ offense puts up impressive stats, poor pitching has plagued them all year. That will be the case again tonight.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers

Odds Courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

My Pick: Brewers

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Our second bet comes from a matchup between two NL division leaders. While the Dodgers have shown they are a step above the Brewers, tonight's pitching matchup will level the playing field. The Brewers will have ace Corbin Burnes (9-6, 3.60 ERA) on the mound against the Dodgers tonight. Burnes had a rocky start to the season but settled down in July to post a 1.85 ERA across six starts. The former Cy Young winner continued that in his first August start but was walloped by the White Sox last week. Burnes had trouble with his location early, which cost him, but he still rebounded and ended up lasting 5 ⅔ innings. Burnes will bounce back tonight, leading to a close win for Milwaukee.

Conversely, the Dodgers will have Lance Lynn (9-9, 5.88 ERA) on the hill tonight. They acquired the 36-year-old at the trade deadline, and he has not disappointed since. Lynn has a 2.00 ERA across three starts for the Dodgers, a significant turnaround from his play in Chicago. However, those three starts came against the Rockies, Padres, and A’s. While Milwaukee's offense doesn’t have the impressive stats of LA, they are a scrappy unit that has been improving as the season progresses. The Crew owns a .295 batting average against Lynn, giving them a chance to get their offense going early.

Speaking of the Brewers, we will be watching Mark Canha closely tonight. The former Met has struggled to adjust to his new team but has gotten on base in six of his last seven games. The reason we like him tonight is his history of success against Lynn. Canha has a .471 batting average in 17 at bats against Dodgers’ starter. Many of those came when Lynn was at his best, so he should have no problem capitalizing on the struggling veteran tonight.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres

Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

My Pick: Diamondbacks -112

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There is a lot to break down here, but the pitching matchup makes it one of the safest bets of the week. For Arizona, ace Zac Gallen (12-5, 3.24 ERA), will be on the mound tonight. The 28-year-old is having another fantastic season for the Diamondbacks, and he has held the Padres scoreless in their last two meetings. One of those meetings came on Saturday, with Gallen allowing four hits and no runs across six innings to get the win. That will give the Arizona righty a lot of confidence coming into tonight, which should help make up for his poor play on the road.

While Gallen has an unseemly 4.72 ERA on the road, he has been far better over the last month. Gallen has posted a quality start in three of his four previous road starts, one of which came against a great Braves team. He has allowed five runs over 13 innings in his two August road starts. Considering his success against the Padres just a few days ago, we see a repeat performance in San Diego tonight.

Another reason we are rolling with Arizona is Padres starter Rich Hill (7-12, 5.17 ERA). The 43-year-old was awful with the Pirates this season, and those struggles have continued in his first two starts with the Padres. Hill lasted a total of 6 ⅓ innings, surrendering nine runs on 11 hits in those two starts. One came against the D-backs, who scored three runs on seven hits across 3 ⅓ innings. That came on the road, but Hill’s ERA at home is an ugly 5.33 ERA. The D-backs offense has cooled off significantly late in the summer, but Hill will give them a chance to recapture their form in this one.

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Michael Savio

423 Articles

Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid and has turned that into a successful career. He cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams along with his Alma Mater Arizona State. He specializes in baseball betting, but has experience in football, basketball, and hockey as well. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children.

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