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Best MLB Bets Today | MLB Picks, August 24

Written by: Michael Savio
Published August 24, 2023
13 min read
Best MLB Bets Today August 24 23

Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros

Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Check out our MLB betting sites for more betting opportunities.  

My Pick: Astros -1.5

While it may not feature marquee names, this game has one of the best pitching matchups of the day. Both starters have succeeded in their first year as full-time starters, but the stats tell us that things may not go well for Boston’s Brayan Bello (9-7, 3.70 ERA). The 24-year-old has become an important part of this Red Sox rotation, but his recent play when starting out west has been bad. Bello was hit hard by both the Mariners and the lowly A’s on the road over the last month. Houston has been better than both division rivals, so we see another ugly outing against an AL West team tonight.

While Bello’s recent road performance is cause for concern, it's not the only reason we like the Astros run line tonight. Houston has seen their offense finally break out after getting Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve back from lengthy stints on the IL. It has resulted in a lot of runs and a charge to the top of the AL West standings. The division race has three teams within one game of each other, so expect the Astros offense to come out aggressive tonight. 

Boston’s lineup has talent, but they have not impressed this season. That will be bad news with JP France (9-4, 2.75 ERA) on the mound for Houston. The rookie has looked good all season, but he has been near unhittable since July 1. France has a stellar 2.29 ERA and a 6-1 record since the beginning of July. While the young pitcher had some struggles at home earlier this season, he has been fantastic lately. Over his last four home games, the righty has four quality starts and a 2.00 ERA. All those stats point to another excellent start for France tonight, making this an easy bet to make.

Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks

Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

My Pick: Diamondbacks -1.5

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Just when we thought the clock struck midnight on Arizona’s Cinderella season, the Diamondbacks managed to turn things around. They have won nine of their previous 11 games, vaulting them to the final NL Wild Card spot. The Reds, conversely, have failed to recapture the momentum they had in the first half of the season. They are also coming off a doubleheader in Anaheim yesterday, which will take a toll on the Reds in tonight’s game. We see this being a lopsided Astros win, making this our favorite bet of the day. 

Tonight is going to be a big night for Arizona starter Merrill Kelly (10-5, 3.13 ERA). The 34-year-old veteran has a 2.70 ERA through four August starts, three of which qualified as quality starts. That includes six shutout innings against a Dodgers team with one of the league's top offenses. That start came at home, where he will be starting tonight. We see another fantastic home performance coming tonight against a fatigued Reds lineup, leading to an easy cover.

The Reds will have Brandon Williamson (4-3, 4.47 ERA) on the bump tonight. The 25-year-old has been up and down in his first MLB season, but things have fallen off of late. Williamson has just one quality start in his last five games, making it through six innings just once. Things have been especially bad on the road (4.79 ERA) and in night games (5.24 ERA). Both of those factors will play for this game, leading to an ugly night for the rookie.

Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins

Odds Courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

My Pick: Twins -125

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No pitcher has been better than Pablo Lopez (9-6, 3.51 ERA) over the last month. The 27-year-old has not allowed a run over his previous three starts (19 innings) and has posted five straight quality starts. Since July 25, Lopez is 4-0 with a 0.84 ERA. While the Rangers will be the best team he has faced during this stretch, they have been struggling of late. Look for Lopez to add to those struggles, leading to another impressive start on his resume.

Texas has seen their offense completely fall apart over the last week. The Rangers have lost six straight games, averaging just 2.8 runs during that stretch. They have the talent to be great, and we know they will bounce back, but it won’t happen tonight. Aside from their recent poor play, the Rangers haven’t been nearly as good on the road this season with a 30-30 record. All of their stats drop when they leave town, and that trend won’t end tonight against a red-hot Lopez.

Andrew Heaney (9-6, 4.27 ERA) will be on the mound for the Rangers tonight. The veteran has a 2.16 ERA in August, but he has thrown a total of five innings over his last two starts. The Rangers don’t need Heaney to go deep into games, which could be good news for Minnesota. The Twins have not hit well against Lefties this season, so their damage will likely come once they get into the bullpen. The Twins can do enough to keep Heaney’s start short and support Lopez to get a key win.

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AUTHOR

Michael Savio

412 Articles

Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid and has turned that into a successful career. He cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams along with his Alma Mater Arizona State. He specializes in baseball betting, but has experience in football, basketball, and hockey as well. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children.

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