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Best MLB Bets Today | MLB Picks, July 4

Written by: Jay Sanin
Published July 4, 2023
13 min read
Best MLB Bets Today

St. Louis Cardinals vs Miami Marlins

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. Check out other MLB betting sites for more betting opportunities!  

My Pick: Marlins -1.5 (+120)

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Our first best bet for the Tuesday MLB schedule comes from Miami, where the Miami Marlins will host the St. Louis Cardinals. Miami comes into this game as the favorite, and deservedly so given how much better they have been than St. Louis this year. Here, we like the Marlins to both win this game and cover the run line as a favorite, sending the Cardinals into further misery in what has been a tough 2023 season for them.

Right off the bat, the pitching matchup in this game favors the Marlins in a major way, as they send Jesus Luzardo out to oppose Adam Wainwright. Luzardo has pitched well this year, going 6-5 with a 3.53 ERA. Look for him to get the better of a pitcher in Wainwright who is 3-3 on the season, but has posted a ghastly 7.45 ERA as he enters his first start in the month of July on Tuesday.

Look for the Marlins to put Wainwright in some dangerous situations early in this game, especially with Luis Arraez at the top of the Miami batting order. Arraez is a threat to hit .400 this season, and the fact that he will be able to set the table against the struggling Wainwright is a scary proposition for the Cardinals in this contest.

Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

My Pick: Under 9 (-120)

Next up on our list of MLB best bets for Tuesday is an under from the Bronx, as the New York Yankees take on the Baltimore Orioles. These teams combined for exactly nine runs in their series opener against one another on Monday night. But it took three Yankee home runs in the final few innings of play just to reach that number, and we should see a relatively low-scoring affair here.

On the mound for the Yankees in this game is Clarke Schmidt, who deserves a ton of credit for his improvement throughout this season. He was terrible in April, coming out of that month with a 6.84 ERA. But he has whittled that number down to 4.37 heading into July, and his continued movement in the right direction should help the Yankees compete in this game and keep it under the total as well.

Also helpful to the under in this game is the fact that the Yankees lineup is just so inconsistent without Aaron Judge out there. While Kyle Higashioka and Anthony Volpe went deep on Monday night, counting on those two to do that again on Tuesday is a fool’s errand. Instead, look for a game that goes under the total on Tuesday in the Bronx, as the Yankees look to win another tight game at home.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Tampa Bay Rays

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

My Pick: Rays -1.5 (+140)

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Possibly the best pitching matchup on the Tuesday MLB schedule will come from the matchup between the Philadelphia Phillies and Tampa Bay Rays. In that game, Aaron Nola will get the start for the Phillies, as he faces Zach Eflin of Tampa. The Phillies come into this game having won nine straight games on the road, but that winning streak is going to come to an end against the mighty Rays.

Some context is definitely required when looking at the nine-game win streak for the Phillies entering Tuesday’s play. Their last nine road games have come against the middling Chicago Cubs, the disastrous Oakland Athletics, and the Arizona Diamondbacks, in a series where the Phillies managed to avoid Zac Gallen entirely.

Meanwhile, the Rays come into this game with by far the best home record in baseball at 34-10 on the season. Look for the Rays to continue their winning ways at home, by posing the toughest challenge the Phillies have faced on the road in quite some time.

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Jay Sanin

186 Articles

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor and writer from New York. He has been handicapping since the moment he was old enough to gamble legally, with his specialties being niche sports like the WNBA and XFL. He’s been told he has a voice for radio. He also has a face for radio.

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