Best MLB Bets Today | MLB Picks, September 28

Written by: Michael Savio
Published September 28, 2023
5 min read
Best MLB Bets Today September 28

Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals

  • Time: 1:15 PM EST
  • Starting Pitchers: Wade Miley (MIL) vs Miles Mikolas (STL)
  • Moneyline: Brewers +100 | Cardinals -120
  • Run Line: Brewers +1.5 (-192) | Cardinals -1.5 (+160)
  • Total: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-120)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. See different MLB betting sites for more betting opportunities!

My Pick: Brewers ML +100

We are rolling with the hotter offense in this one, as Milwaukee has been one of the most potent lineups in the league since August 1. They added a couple of bats at the deadline in Mark Canha and Carlos Santana, and both have been fantastic. The team has outscored the Cardinals 15-6 in the first three games of the series, which is impressive considering they were shut out in the opening game. Given the Cardinals’ continued offensive struggles, the Brewers' moneyline is too good to pass up at this price.

Speaking of Miles Mikolas (7-12, 4.84 ERA), the Cardinals' starts have seen a significant regression in 2023. His ERA and WHIP are the highest since his short stint with the Rangers in 2014, ultimately sending him to the minors for four years. Surprisingly, most of his struggles this season have come at home, where he owns a 5.48 ERA. Mikolas has a 6.50 ERA across his three September starts, and we think that numbers will climb higher after today’s games.

Wade Miley (8-4, 3.38) has struggled a bit in September but has been fantastic for the Crew this season. His ability to post a 3.38 ERA at the back of their rotation has helped them win a lot of games, and he will do so again tonight. To get a win, Miley will need to hold the Cardinals to three or fewer runs, a feat he has accomplished in eight of his previous nine starts. It may not look pretty, but Miley will put the Brewers' offense in a position to win today.

Los Angeles Angels vs Tampa Bay Rays

Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

My Pick: Rays -1.5 (-113)

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Our second bet of the day is an easy one to make. We have a Rays team fighting for the AL East title, facing off against an Angels team that imploded in 2023. LA is without Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout, while many of their other starters were waived. Some of those players were not claimed, further darkening the mood in the clubhouse. While the Angels were able to get a win last night, it broke a six-game losing streak. It was their second six-game streak of the month, and they will start another today.

One reason for that is Zach Eflin (15-8, 3.44 ERA) will be on the mound for the Rays. The 29-year-old is fourth in the league in wins and twelfth in ERA amid a resurgence in his first year with the Rays. The righty is coming off his best start of the season, holding the Orioles to one run on one hit across seven innings. Baltimore has been the best team in baseball in the second half of the season, and that start came in a crucial game in the AL East race. Eflin has faced the Angels once this season, allowing one run over six innings, but this is a very different (and worse) lineup. Look for him to cruise en route to a lopsided win.

The Angels will send Griffin Canning (7-7, 4.42 ERA) out to the bump tonight. The 27-year-old hasn’t been good and has allowed seven runs over his last 11 ⅓ innings. While the righty looked sharp against Tampa earlier this season, he only lasted 3 ⅓ innings. Canning’s September numbers have been among his worst, posting a 4.67 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP while losing all three games. We don’t expect that to change against a loaded Tamap offense tonight.

Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees

Odds Courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

My Pick: Under 7.5 Runs

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If you are going to bet on one MLB under this year, make it this one. On one side, we have a Yankees offense that has failed to live up to expectations. They have scored just four runs over their last three games and will face another tough test on the mound tonight. On the other side, we have a Blue Jays offense that has been good in 2023 and is loaded with young talent. However, they will be up against one of the best pitchers in baseball tonight, Gerrit Cole. 

Cole (13-4, 2.81 ERA) has been incredible for the Yankees this season. He ranks third in the league in ERA, fifth in strikeouts (205), and third in WHIP (1.05). While he had a couple of tough starts in August, he has been lights out through his three starts in September. Cole has a 1.50 ERA during that span, as it seems he is focused on securing his first-ever Cy Young trophy. The veteran has seen Toronto twice this season, holding them scoreless over a combined 11 ⅓ innings. As good as the Jays are, we don’t see that trend changing tonight.

While Jays’ starter Jose Berrios (11-10, 3.49) will not be a 2023 AL Cy Young finalist, he has had a fantastic season for Toronto. He ranks fourteenth in the league in ERA and twentieth in WHIP (1.10), both of which are vastly improved from 2022. Like Cole, Berrios has been fantastic in September. The 29-year-old has a 1.80 ERA across three starts this month, which includes seven scoreless innings against the Red Sox last week. He allowed three runs over 6 ⅓ innings against the Yankees earlier this year, and we think he improves on that against a lineup that is looking towards 2024.

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Michael Savio

Sports Betting Analyst

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Michael is an avid sports fan and a veteran bettor from Milwaukee. He learned the trade from his grandfather in Las Vegas as a kid and has turned that into a successful career. He cheers for all Wisconsin pro teams along with his Alma Mater Arizona State. He specializes in baseball betting, but has experience in football, basketball, and hockey as well. When he isn’t pouring over stats, he’s spending time with his two young children.
Nationality: American
Education: Bachelor of Political Science
Favourite Sportsbook: Caesars Sportsbook
Favourite Casino: BetMGM Casino
3 years
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