Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Big Names and Big Value

Written by: Bryan Zarpentine
Published July 11, 2024
5 min read
Best MLB Prop Bets Today 2024 07 11

It’s not quite a full schedule on Thursday, but there are enough games and prominent players in action to pick out five prop bets we like. In most cases, we’ve stuck to familiar pitchers and hitters we know. Also, more than half of our props on Thursday have plus odds, which we always like. Also, keep in mind that all of our odds come from Caesars Sportsbook, which is giving new users a $1,000 risk-free bet on their first wager once they sign up.

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Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Blue Jays vs. Giants (3:45 PM, EST)

Kevin Gausman Over 2.5 ER (+110) at Caesars

To his credit, Gausman pitched much better in his last outing, allowing just two runs and striking out 10 over six innings against the Mariners. But his consistency this year has been lacking, so we’re not sold on his ability to put together back-to-back quality starts. Keep in mind that he gave up at least three runs in five of his six starts during the month of June. The Giants have also scored at least four runs in six straight games, so they’ve been consistent offensively, which means they should have a good day against Gausman.

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Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Dodgers vs. Phillies (6:05 PM, EST)

Aaron Nola Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+110) at Caesars

Even against a talented Los Angeles lineup, we’re going to get behind Nola to rack up the strikeouts. Keep in mind the Dodgers are middle of the pack in terms of striking out, so it’s not as if they’re better than average at putting the ball in play. More importantly, Nola has gone over 6.5 strikeouts in back-to-back starts, including nine against the Marlins in late June. He’s also made it a habit of pitching deep into games, making it more realistic that he’ll be able to reach seven strikeouts in this game.

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Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Cubs vs. Orioles (6:35 PM, EST)

Austin Hays Over 1.5 Total Bases (+133) at Caesars

Hays is the one player we’re targeting on Thursday who is something of a surprise inclusion. However, he’s 8 for 19 with five doubles over his last five games, not to mention 6 for 12 with four doubles over his last three games. Hays is very much in the midst of a hot streak. He also has a favorable matchup against Justin Steele on Thursday, going 3 for 6 in his career against Steele. That’s not a surprise because Hays is batting .362 against lefties this year with eight of his 13 doubles coming against southpaws despite fewer at-bats against them. We’re banking on Hays continuing his hot streak and continuing to mash lefties.

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Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Yankees vs. Rays (6:50 PM, EST)

Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 Total Bases (-117) at Caesars

As Tampa’s leadoff hitter, Diaz usually gets more at-bats, giving him more opportunities to collect multiple bases. He’s also put together a four-game hitting streak with a couple of extra-base hits, so the ability to collect multiple bases with one hit is there. Most importantly, Diaz’s 12 for 30 (.400) with four doubles and three home runs in his career against Nestor Cortes. Not many hitters have numbers that good against Cortes, but Diaz crushes lefties, so we expect him to have another good game against Cortes on Thursday.

Aaron Judge Over 0.5 RBI (-104) at Caesars

Last but not least, we have Judge. He’s been in something of a slump lately, going seven straight games without an RBI. But we all know such a streak can’t reach much longer. With Shane Baz starting for the Rays, Judge and the Yankees should get on track. For what it’s worth, Judge is 1 for 3 with a home run in his career against Baz. But he also has good numbers against some of Tampa's top relievers. With Alex Verdugo and Juan Soto ahead of him, Judge should get some RBI opportunities. Otherwise, he can snap his home run drought. Either way, his RBI drought comes to an end on Thursday night.

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Bryan Zarpentine

Sports Betting Analyst

Online Sports Betting
Bryan Zarpentine is a 2008 graduate of Syracuse University and has been working as a freelance writer and editor since 2010. During that time, he has contributed to countless sites while covering baseball, soccer, the NFL, college football, and college basketball.
Nationality: American
Education: Bachelor of Arts
Favourite Sportsbook: BetMGM Sportsbook
Favourite Casino: BetMGM Casino
14 years
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