The Mets ended the Wild Card Round in thrilling fashion. In a way, it’s a good thing that baseball fans have an off day Friday to recover. Of course, the Division Series round begins on Saturday with all eight remaining teams in action. Naturally, we have a set of prop bets ready for Game 1 of the Division Series.
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We’ll start with the man of the hour. The end of the season has been tough for Alonso, but it’s possible that his game-winning home run on Thursday will turn things around for him. It certainly delivered a big confidence boost and could take a little pressure off him. Keep in mind that Alonso has a hit in four of his last five games, so there have been small signs of him coming around. He’s also 10 for 34 (.294) with a pair of doubles in his career against Zack Wheeler, so getting a pair of hits or an extra-base hit against Philadelphia’s ace isn’t that far-fetched.
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Admittedly, it’s risky to fade the presumptive American League MVP. But it’ll be a full week since Judge last played. There is also a small sample size of teams that got the bye struggling in the Divisional Round after an extended break. Also, Judge went 0 for 5 with five strikeouts in the last game he played last weekend. The kicker is that he’s just 1 for 18 with 11 strikeouts in his career against Kansas City starter Michael Wacha. If ever there was a time to fade Judge, this is it.
Perez also faces a difficult matchup in Game 1 of the ALDS. He’s just 1 for 15 in his career against Gerrit Cole, who starts for the Yankees on Saturday. Cole could be poised to go deep into the game, so Perez might only get one at-bat against New York’s bullpen. Granted, Perez got a hit in both Wild Card games this past week. But he’s also just 3 for 16 over his last four games, so he’s not lighting it up and could be a candidate to go hitless in Game 1.
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Hernandez is another hitter we’re choosing to fade after his team has been off for nearly a week. To his credit, Hernandez was in a nice groove toward the end of the regular season. But he’s also struck out at least once in seven straight games, including three games with multiple strikeouts. In his career against San Diego starter Dylan Cease, Hernandez is just 1 for 5 with five strikeouts. Between his poor history against Cease and a long layoff, Hernandez will be vulnerable to multiple strikeouts on Saturday, making this bet worth a shot with plus odds.
Tatis continues to show how much he loves playoff baseball. He went 4 for 6 over San Diego’s two wins over the Braves, going over 1.5 total bases in both games. In eight career playoff games, Tatis is 11 for 28 (.393) with five extra-base hits. He also went 2 for 2 this season against Los Angeles starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto, which should only add to his confidence. Unless Tatis suddenly goes cold, he might be someone we target frequently during the postseason.
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