Best NRFI Bets Today: Expect a Lack of Scoring Opportunities for the Nationals

After a hot start to the season in regard to scoring runs, negative regression looms large over the Washington Nationals as they face off against Paul Skenes who excels at keeping opposing runners off the bases. Shortly after their opening pitch, we turn our attention towards Tarik Skubal as the reigning AL Cy Young winner looks to build on his momentum with a favorable matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers.

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Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Brad Lord vs. Paul Skenes (6:40 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-150) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Even though the Washington Nationals offense fails to make contact at a league average rate, that has not stopped them from capitalizing on their minimal scoring opportunities as they also rank in the top half of the board in Team Total Runs and RBIs. After the top of their order, their production on offense drastically drops off as no one else in the lineup averages more than one Hit per game while only Amed Rosario possesses a Batting Average over 0.250.

Against Paul Skenes, the Washington Nationals struggles with making contact will be on full display as the reigning NL Rookie of the Year winner excels at creating Whiffs with his elite blend of power and command of the ball. After lighting the league on fire last season, Skenes has carried over his momentum into this year as the Pirates star pitcher currently possesses a WHIP of 0.818 and a FIP of 1.30 while averaging over one Strikeout per Inning Pitched.

As for who will face off against Skenes, the Nationals rotational pitcher Brad Ford is projected to get his second start of the season. Ford has made four appearances this year and has excelled at keeping opposing offenses out of scoring position as he possesses an ERA of 1.80. With Pittsburgh’s offense ranking in the bottom seven in Team Total Hits and On Base Percentage, expect Ford to sustain his high level of play and hold the Pirates scoreless in the first inning.

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Detroit Tigers vs. Milwaukee Brewers - Tarik Skubal vs. Tyler Alexander (7:40 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-135) at BetMGM Sportsbook

It’s been a turbulent start to the year for the reigning AL Cy Young award winner as Tarik Skubal struggled to avoid contact in his first two starts of the season before turning in a flawless performance against the New York Yankees. Skubal showed flashes of his dominant 2024 self in his last outing as he finished the contest against New York conceding just four Hits Against and zero Earned Runs Allowed while racking up six total Strikeouts.

Heading into Monday, Skubal will have the opportunity to build on his momentum as he faces off against a Milwaukee Brewers offense who ranks below league average in On Base Percentage. Especially with Christian Yelich struggling to round back into form as the Brewers star batter is averaging less than one Hit per game and a 0.583 OPS. Without his production, Skubal is in a great position to start out hot and make quick work of the top of their order.

On the other side of the field, Milwaukee rolls out their rotational pitcher Tyler Alexander in an attempt to cool off the Tigers red hot bats as the Brewers pitcher has been dominant in his four appearances this season. As of writing, Alexander possesses an ERA of 2.84 and a WHIP of 1.184 while averaging just two Hits Against per game. Alexander is also supported by a productive back end as the Brewers defense ranks 10th overall in Defensive Efficiency. 

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Best YRFI Bets Today

• Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres - Jameson Taillon vs. Dylan Cease - With both pitchers struggling to avoid contact this season, expect the Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres to get into scoring position early and often in their contest as both offenses rank top-5 in Team Total Hits and in On Base Percentage.

• Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers - Antonio Senzatela vs. Dustin May - It may be a long night for Antonio Senzatela as his WHIP of 2.143 will be on full display when he faces off against the Los Angeles Dodgers top of their order who are at full strength with Freddie Freeman making his return from injury.

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