Best NRFI Bets Today: Paul Skenes Makes His Return to the Mound

After getting off to a hot start to the season, the Chicago Cubs will struggle to sustain their high level of play on Thursday night as they are set to face off against Paul Skenes who leads the league in WHIP and in FIP. A few minutes after their opening pitch, we turn our attention towards the St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds as two pitchers who excel at avoiding contact are set to take the mound.

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Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Colin Rea vs. Paul Skenes (12:35 PM, EST)

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After nearly winning the NL Cy Young in his rookie campaign, Paul Skenes is making a strong case for the award in his sophomore season as the Pittsburgh Pirates star ace currently leads the league in WHIP and in FIP while averaging less than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched. His back end has also drastically improved this season after last year’s disastrous performance as the Pirates defense currently ranks top-15 in Defensive Efficiency.

Every bit of his production will be needed on Thursday as he is set to face off against a Chicago Cubs offense who ranks top-2 in Team Total Hits, RBIs, Total Runs Scored, and in On Base Percentage. Luckily for Skenes, he will have the opportunity to get off to a hot start as Ian Happ in the top of the Cubs order has struggled with getting into scoring position as his low mark in OPS indicates.

On the other side of the field, Colin Rea will be in a favorable position to match Skenes level of production as he faces off against a Pittsburgh Pirates offense who ranks below league average in the same previously mentioned metrics. Rea has been masterful in his three starts this season as the Cubs pitcher enters the contest with an ERA of 0.96 and a FIP of 1.53. With the Pirates struggling to make contact, expect Rea to sustain his high level of play on the mound.

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St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds - Matthew Liberatore vs. Andrew Abbott (12:40 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-115) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Arguably no one in the NL is in more control of their command than Matthew Liberatore as the St. Louis Cardinals pitcher is averaging a SO/BB of 14.00 and less than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched. His ability to generate Strikeouts at a high rate while avoiding walks have led to a dominant start to the season as Liberatore is also averaging an ERA of 3.19, a WHIP of 0.968, and a FIP of 1.89.

In a NL Central divisional matchup against Cincinnati, Liberatore will have the opportunity to sustain his high level of play as he faces off against a Reds offense who struggles with getting on base early on in their contests. This is due to Matt McLain failing to make contact at a competitive rate as he averages less than one Hit per game while Elly de la Cruz and TJ Friedl possess an OPS less than 0.800.

The St. Louis Cardinals offense have also managed to play at a high level as their lineup ranks above league average in the same previously mentioned metrics. Unfortunately for St. Louis, they are set to face off against Andrew Abbott who excels at avoiding contact as the Reds pitcher is averaging just three Hits per game and a ERA of 3.60. Abbott also receives a high level of support from his back end as the Reds defense leads the league in Defensive Efficiency.

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Best YRFI Bets Today

• Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago White Sox - Chad Patrick vs. Sean Burke - With Milwaukee’s offense ranking near the top of the board in Contact Rate and in On Base Percentage, expect the Brewers to sustain their high level of play as they face off against Sean Burke who averages over one Hit Against per Inning Pitched and a FIP of 6.52. 

• Athletics vs. Texas Rangers - Jeffrey Springs vs. Tyler Mahle - Positive regression looms large over the Texas Rangers star studded offense as they face off against the Athletics Jeffrey Springs who possesses an ERA of 6.04, a WHIP of 1.624, a FIP of 5.16, and a defense who grades out poorly in Defensive Efficiency.

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