Best NRFI Bets Today: Fade the Los Angeles Dodgers Top of Their Order Against Nick Pivetta

With Nick Pivetta set to take the mound, the Los Angeles Dodgers top of their order will struggle to sustain their high level of play as the San Diego Padres pitcher excels at avoiding contact. Before their opening pitch, we turn our attention towards Atlanta and Milwaukee as positive regression looms large over Aaron Civale as he faces off against a Braves offense who fails to make contact at a league average rate.

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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres - Dustin May vs. Nick Pivetta (9:40 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook

The San Diego Padres have the opportunity to close the gap between them and the Los Angeles Dodgers for first in the NL West on Monday night as the reigning World Series champions only have a one game lead in the division standings as of writing. That brings in an added level of excitement into their series as the winner of the NL West will also most likely receive a first round bye in the playoffs.

Against the Dodgers, the Padres will be able to keep the contest tight with Nick Pivetta set to take the mound. Pivetta has been very productive this season as he is currently averaging an ERA of 3.16, a WHIP of 1.024, a FIP of 3.05, and less than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched. Pivetta also receives a high level of support from his back end as the Padres defense ranks sixth overall in Defensive Efficiency.

While Pivetta has thrived, Dustin May has struggled to find his footing as the Dodgers pitcher is averaging an ERA of 4.09 and a FIP of 4.02. Fortunately for May, he will have a great opportunity to round back into form as he faces off against a Padres offense who ranks below league average in Team Total Hits, RBIs, Total Runs Scored, and in On Base Percentage.

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Atlanta Braves vs. Milwaukee Brewers - Chris Sale vs. Aaron Civale (7:40 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-130) at BetMGM Sportsbook

After winning the NL Cy Young award in 2024, the Atlanta Braves Chris Sale is making a case to win it again this season as he is currently averaging an ERA of 2.93 and a FIP of 2.92. His success stems from his ability to create Whiffs at a high rate as Sale is also averaging less than one Hit Against and more than one Strikeout per Inning Pitched.

Sale will be in a favorable position to put together a dominant performance against Milwaukee as he faces off against a Brewers offense who ranks in the bottom half of the board in Contact Rate. Their struggles with generating Hits at a league average rate hurts their ability to get into scoring position which increases Sale’s chances of escaping the first inning without conceding an Earned Run.

Like the Brewers, the Braves star studded offense have also struggled to make contact this season as their lineup ranks below league average in Contact Rate and in 13th in Strikeout Rate. That bodes well for Aaron Civale who has been a tad unlucky this season. Even though Civale is averaging less than five Hits Against this season, he is also averaging an ERA of 5.19.

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Best YRFI Bets Today

• Seattle Mariners vs. Arizona Diamondbacks - Emerson Hancock vs. Merrill Kelly - With Emerson Hancock set to take the mound, expect the Arizona Diamondbacks offense to get into scoring position early on in their contest as the Seattle pitcher averages a FIP of 5.02 and a WHIP of 1.470.

• Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox - Shane Baz vs. Brayan Bello - Expect both offenses to succeed from the opening pitch as they face off against a pair of pitchers who average a FIP higher than 4.80 and more than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched.

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