Best NRFI Bets Today: Expect the Padres Offense to Continue to Struggle

With Ben Casparius set to take the mound, the San Diego Padres struggles on offense are poised to persist as the Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher excels at avoiding contact. Before their opening pitch, we turn our attention towards the AL East divisional matchup between the Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays as both offenses are set to face off against a pair of productive arms.

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San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers - Dylan Cease vs. Ben Casparius (10:10 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-105) at BetMGM Sportsbook

After ranking near the top of the board in most key metrics last year, the San Diego Padres offense have struggled to carry over their momentum as they have severely underwhelmed this season. As of writing, the Padres lineup ranks in the bottom half of the board in Team Total Hits, RBIs, Total Runs Scored, Bases on Walks, and in On Base Percentage.

Unfortunately for San Diego, their offense will continue to struggle in a NL West divisional matchup against the Los Angeles Dodgers as they are set to face off against Ben Casparius who excels at avoiding contact. In his 2025 campaign, Casparius is averaging a ERA of 2.86, a WHIP of 1.023, and less than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched while backed by a defense who ranks top-15 in Defensive Efficiency.

On the other side of the field, positive regression looms large over Dylan Cease as his FIP of 3.10 indicates. Especially when he is creating Whiffs at a very high rate as the Padres pitcher is averaging over one Strikeout and less than one Hit Allowed per Inning Pitched. With his defense providing him a high level of support with their coverage, expect the Dodgers top of their order to struggle to get on base.

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Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays - Zach Eflin vs. Ryan Pepiot (7:35 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-111) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Speaking of underperforming offenses, the Baltimore Orioles have severely underwhelmed this season per their preseason projections as their lineup currently ranks 23rd in Contact Rate and 24th in On Base Percentage. Their struggles with generating Hits can be attributed to their aggression as the Orioles also rank eighth overall in Strikeout Rate.

Against the Tampa Bay Rays, the Padres offense will continue to struggle with getting into scoring position as they face off against Ryan Pepiot who is averaging a ERA of 3.31 and a WHIP of 1.139. Pepiot is also surrounded by a back end who has played at a very high level this season as the Rays defense currently ranks above league average in Defensive Efficiency and in Fielding Percentage.

On the other side of the field, Zach Eflin is in a favorable position to thrive as he also faces off against an offense who ranks in the bottom half of the board in On Base Percentage while striking out at a very high rate. The Rays struggles with getting on base bodes well for Eflin as the Orioles pitcher is currently averaging a WHIP of 1.094 and less than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched.

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Best YRFI Bets Today

• Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins - Mick Abel vs. Sandy Alcantara - With Sandy Alcantara still struggling to keep opposing runners off the bases as his WHIP of 1.492 indicates, the Philadelphia Phillies will have a great opportunity to open up the scoring in the first inning as he faces off against a lineup who ranks top-10 in Contact Rate and in On Base Percentage.

• Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners - Lucas Giolito vs. Logan Gilbert - Expect the Seattle Mariners offense to round back into form against the Boston Red Sox with Lucas Giolito set to take the mound as he averages an ERA of 5.45 and a WHIP of 1.538 while backed by a defense who ranks 28th in Defensive Efficiency.

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