Best NRFI Bets Today: Target the NRFI in a NL East Divisional Matchup

Negative regression looms large over the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves as they are set to face off against a pair of productive arms on the mound. Shortly after their opening pitch, we turn our attention towards the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago White Sox as Matthew Liberatore will have the opportunity to round back into form in a favorable matchup against one of the worst offenses in the league.

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New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves - David Peterson vs. Spencer Schwellenbach (7:15 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-105) at BetMGM Sportsbook

After entering the year listed as one of the betting favorites to win the NL East division title, the Atlanta Braves have some ground to cover as they are 13 games back from first as of writing. Their lack of offensive production has played a major role in their struggles this season as their lineup ranks below league average in Team Total Hits, RBIs, and in Total Runs Scored.

In a divisional matchup against the New York Mets, the Braves' struggles on offense are poised to persist as they face off against David Peterson who excels at avoiding contact. In his 13 starts, Peterson is averaging less than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched, an ERA of 2.49, and an FIP of 3.04. Expect Peterson to exploit the Braves' lack of contact ability and hold them scoreless in the first inning.

Like Peterson, Spencer Schwellenbach has also had a productive start to the year as the Braves pitcher is currently averaging an ERA of 3.11, a WHIP of 1.004, and a FIP of 3.18. Even though he faces off against a Mets top of their order who excels at making contact, his back end helps reduce the amount of variance in his starts as the Braves defense ranks top-12 in Defensive Efficiency. 

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St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago White Sox - Matthew Liberatore vs. Shane Smith (7:40 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-125) at FanDuel Sportsbook

After ranking near the bottom of the board in most key offensive metrics last season, the Chicago White Sox have seemingly carried over their struggles into this year as their lineup ranks dead last in Contact Rate and in 27th On Base Percentage. Even during their struggles, the White Sox have remained aggressive in their plate appearances as they also rank seventh overall in Strikeout Rate. 

Their inability to generate Hits bodes well for Matthew Liberatore as the St. Louis Cardinals pitcher has struggled with avoiding contact. Even though Liberatore averages over one Hit Against per Inning Pitched, it is worth noting he also averages a WHIP of 1.186 and an FIP of 3.15. The Cardinals' high level of play on defense also helps mask his struggles on the mound as their back end ranks top-2 in Fielding Percentage.

On the other side of the field, Shane Smith has managed to get off to a much better start as the White Sox pitcher is currently averaging an ERA of 2.37 and an FIP of 3.45. Even when receiving minimal support from his defense, Smith has been able to neutralize opposing offenses with his own individual production as his low FIP indicates.

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Best YRFI Bets Today

• Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins - Jesus Luzardo vs. Cal Quantrill - After cashing the YRFI in their previous contest, we go back to the well on Tuesday night as the Philadelphia Phillies star studded offense is set to battle it out against Cal Quantrill who averages an ERA of 5.61 and a WHIP of 1.500.

• Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees - Kyle Hendricks vs. Will Warren - Kyle Hendricks struggles on the mound are poised to persist against the New York Yankees as he faces off against reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge and a lineup who ranks top-10 in Contact Rate, RBIs, Total Runs Scored, and in On Base Percentage.

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