Best NRFI Bets Today: Continue to Back Patrick Corbin

Patrick Corbin has the opportunity to build on his hot start to the season as the newly acquired Texas Rangers pitcher faces off against the Baltimore Orioles who struggle with making contact. Shortly after their opening pitch, we turn our attention towards the Pittsburgh Pirates and Milwaukee Brewers as both lineups are set to battle it out against a pair of productive arms on the mound.

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Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles - Patrick Corbin vs. Trevor Rogers (6:35 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (+110) at BetMGM Sportsbook

After being labeled as one of the worst starting pitchers in the league during his tenure with Washington, Patrick Corbin has seemingly found his footing in his new home as he is currently averaging an ERA of 3.91 with the Texas Rangers. His success this season stems from his ability to avoid contact at a consistent rate as Corbin is also averaging less than one Hit Allowed per Inning Pitched.

In Monday night’s contest against Baltimore, Corbin will have a great opportunity to sustain his high level of play as he faces off against an Orioles offense who ranks below league average in Contact Rate, RBIs, Total Runs Scored, and in On Base Percentage. Especially with his back end providing him with a high level of support with their coverage as the Rangers defense leads the league in Defensive Efficiency.

On the other side of the field, Trevor Rogers is also in a favorable position to put together a dominant performance as he faces off against a Rangers offense who also ranks in the bottom half of the board in the same previously mentioned metrics. Their struggles with making contact will continue to hamper them as Rogers averages a FIP of 2.37, a WHIP of 1.154, and less than four Hits Against per game.

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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers - Braxton Ashcraft vs. Chad Patrick (7:40 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook

While reigning NL Rookie of the Year winner Paul Skenes hogs most of the spotlight, Pittsburgh’s Braxton Ashcraft has quietly played at a very high level as the rotational pitcher averages an ERA of 1.54 and a FIP of 2.89. Even though his Strikeout Rate is low, Ashcraft is able to make up for it by forcing opposing batters into low quality contact scenarios by averaging less than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched.

Against Milwaukee, expect Ashcraft to make quick work of the top of their order as he faces off against an offense who ranks 20th overall in Team Total Hits and 16th in Strikeout Rate. His back end also helps further reduce the amount of contact variance in his starts as the Pirates defense ranks above league average in Fielding Percentage.

As for Chad Patrick, the Milwaukee Brewers pitcher will have the opportunity to match Ashcraft’s level of production as he battles it out against a Pirates offense who also severely underwhelms in their efforts of making contact. Expect Pittsburgh to continue to struggle as Patrick enters the contest averaging an ERA of 3.50 while supported by a defense who ranks in the top half of the board in Defensive Efficiency.

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Best YRFI Bets Today

• Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals - Ben Brown vs. Matthew Liberatore - Expect the Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals to open up the scoring early on in a NL Central divisional matchup as they face off against a pair of pitchers who both average over one Hit Against per Inning Pitched and a ERA higher than 4.00

• Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago White Sox - Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Shane Smith - Positive regression looms large over the Chicago White Sox top of their order as they are set to face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks Eduardo Rodriguez who currently averages an ERA of 5.93, a FIP of 4.40, and nearly two runners on base per inning.

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