Best NRFI Bets Today: Negative Regression Looms Large Over the Brewers Offense

With Jacob Latz on the mound, negative regression looms large over the Milwaukee Brewers offense as the Texas Rangers pitcher excels at avoiding contact. Later in the night, we turn our attention towards the NL West divisional matchup between the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants as a pair of productive arms are set to take the mound.

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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Texas Rangers - Jose Quintana vs. Jacob Latz (8:05 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-110) at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook

After going through a slow start to the year, the Milwaukee Brewers have managed to round into dominant form as they head into the final stretch of the season with a 7.5 game lead over the Chicago Cubs for first in the NL Central division standings. Their resurgence on offense has played a major role in their success as their lineup ranks above league average in Team Total Hits and in On Base Percentage.

Unfortunately for Milwaukee, negative regression looms large over the Brewers offense as they face off against Jacob Latz who is currently averaging an ERA of 3.15 and a FIP of 3.82. Especially when Latz is surrounded by the best back end in the league which helps reduce the amount of contact variance in his starts as the Rangers defense leads the league in Defensive Efficiency and in Fielding Percentage.

On the other side of the field, Jose Quintana draws a much more favorable matchup as the Brewers pitcher faces off against a Rangers offense who ranks below league average in Contact Rate, RBIs, Total Runs Scored, and in On Base Percentage. Expect the Rangers struggles on offense to continue to persist as Quintana takes the mound averaging an ERA of 3.72 and less than one Hit Allowed per Inning Pitched.

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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants - Nabil Crismatt vs. Logan Webb (9:45 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-140) at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook

Time is quickly running out for the San Francisco Giants in their efforts of competing for the World Series as they are currently four games back from the New York Mets in the wildcard standings for the last wildcard spot in the playoffs. With the division title out of their reach, the Giants must continue to win at a consistent rate and leap over the Mets in the standings should they want to play in the postseason.

With Logan Webb on the mound, San Francisco’s defense will be in a favorable position to neutralize the Arizona Diamondbacks offense as the Giants pitcher is currently averaging an ERA of 3.17 and a FIP of 2.67. Even though his Contact Rate is high, Webb still excels at generating Whiffs as he is also averaging over one Strikeout per Inning Pitched.

As for Nabil Crismatt, the Diamondbacks pitcher will have the opportunity to get off to a hot start as he faces off against a Giants offense who ranks near dead last in Contact Rate and in Slugger Percentage. Expect San Francisco’s struggles on offense to be on full display against Crismatt as he enters the contest averaging an ERA of 2.14 while surrounded by a defense who ranks top-15 in Fielding Percentage.

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Best YRFI Bets Today

• Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves - Shots Imanaga vs. Bryce Elder - With the Chicago Cubs ranking near the top of the board in Contact Rate and in On Base Percentage, their offense will have a great opportunity to get into scoring position from the opening pitch as they face off against Bryce Elder who is averaging an ERA of 5.54 and over one Hit Against per Inning Pitched.

• St. Louis Cardinals vs. Seattle Mariners - Miles Mikolas vs. Bryan Woo - Expect the Seattle Mariners to open up the scoring early on in their contest against St. Louis as they face off against Miles Mikolas who is averaging an ERA of 4.89, a WHIP of 1.335, and a FIP of 4.96.

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