Best NRFI Bets Today: Negative Regression Looms Large Over the Padres Offense

With Matthew Boyd on the mound, the San Diego Padres offense are expected to regress as the Chicago Cubs pitcher excels at avoiding contact. Later in the night, we turn our attention towards the Cincinnati Reds and Los Angeles Dodgers as the former NL Cy Young winner Blake Snell will have the opportunity to get off to a hot start as he faces off against an offense who struggles with getting on base.

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San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs - Nick Pivetta vs. Matthew Boyd (3:08 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-150) at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook

After falling just short of winning the NL West division title, the San Diego Padres now must hit the road to battle it out against the Chicago Cubs in the first round of the playoffs. Their struggles with getting on base held them back from being able to string together their wins this season as their lineup heads into the wildcard round ranked below league average in Total Runs Scored, RBIs, and in Slugger Percentage.

In Tuesday’s contest against the Cubs, the Padres struggles with getting into scoring position will be on full display as they face off against Matthew Boyd who is averaging an ERA of 3.21, a FIP of 3.65, and less than one Hit Allowed per Inning Pitched. Especially when Boyd is surrounded by a very productive back end as the Cubs defense ranks top-4 in Defensive Efficiency and in Fielding Percentage.

On the other side of the field, Nick Pivetta draws a much tougher matchup as he faces off against a Cubs offense who ranks above league average in the same previously mentioned offensive metrics. Luckily for Pivetta, he possesses more than enough individual production to shut down the Cubs top of their order as he enters the contest averaging an ERA of 2.87 and a WHIP of 0.985.

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Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers - Hunter Greene vs. Blake Snell (9:08 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-140) at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook

The New York Mets fall was Cincinnati’s gain as their slump helped the Reds close the gap between the two in the wildcard standings for the last spot in the playoffs. Even though the Reds squeaked into the postseason at the last second, their offense will need to elevate their level of play as they currently rank below league average in Contact Rate and in On Base Percentage.

Unfortunately for the Reds, their struggles on offense are poised to persist as they face off against Blake Snell who is averaging an ERA of 2.35 and a FIP of 2.70. Snell’s success on the mound can be attributed to his high Whiff Rate as the former Cy Young winner is also averaging less than one Hit Against and more than one Strikeout per Inning Pitched.

As for Hunter Greene, the Reds pitcher has also put together a productive 2025 campaign as he enters the contest averaging an ERA of 2.76 and a WHIP of 0.938. His back end helps reduce the amount of contact variance in his starts as the Reds rank fourth overall in Defensive Efficiency. With both offenses projected to struggle, expect no runs to be scored in the first inning.

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Best YRFI Bets Today

• Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees - Garrett Crochet vs. Max Fried - Negative regression looms large over Garrett Crochet as the Boston Red Sox pitcher faces off against a New York Yankees offense who makes contact and gets on base at a consistent rate while his back end ranks dead last in Fielding Percentage.

• Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians - Tarik Skubal vs. Gavin Williams - The Detroit Tigers have a great opportunity to open up the scoring early on in their contest against Cleveland as they face off against Gavin Williams who is averaging a FIP of 4.39 and a Guardians defense who ranks below league average in Defensive Efficiency.

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