Best NRFI Bets Today: Expect Blake Snell to Neutralize the Philadelphia Phillies Offense

With Blake Snell getting the start, negative regression looms large over the Philadelphia Phillies top of their order as the former Cy Young winner excels at avoiding contact. Later in the night, we turn our attention towards the Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers as both offenses are set to battle it out against two productive arms on the mound and a pair of back ends who thrive in coverage.

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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies - Blake Snell vs. Jesus Luzardo (6:08 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-135) at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook

Just when it looked like the Philadelphia Phillies were going to take a 1-0 lead in their series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, the reigning World Series champions offense sprung back to life to help mount a comeback late in game one. With their win, the Dodgers are now just two wins away from moving on to the next round of the playoffs with two of their next three games taking place on their home field.

In Monday night’s matchup against the Phillies, the Dodgers defense will need to play at a high level in order to avoid falling behind on the scoreboard again. With Blake Snell on the mound, their defense is in a great position to limit the Phillies scoring opportunities as the Dodgers pitcher averages an ERA of 2.35, a FIP of 2.70, and less than one Hit Allowed per Inning Pitched.

On the other side of the field, Jesus Luzardo draws a tough matchup as the Dodgers offense ranks above league average in Contact Rate, On Base Percentage, and in Slugger Percentage. Their ability to string together their Hits helps them score at a consistent rate as their star studded lineup also ranks top-15 in RBIs and in Total Runs Scored.

Fortunately for Luzardo, the Phillies pitcher possesses more than enough individual production to neutralize the Dodgers offense as he takes the mound averaging an ERA of 3.92 and a FIP of 2.90. Especially with his back end reducing the amount of contact variance in his starts with their coverage as the Phillies defense ranks above league average in Fielding Percentage.

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Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers - Shota Imanaga vs. Aaron Ashby (9:08 PM, EST)

Under 0.5 Run (-125) at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook

After conceding their spot at the top of the NL Central division standings to the Milwaukee Brewers earlier in the year, the Chicago Cubs were unable to reclaim the lead and finished the regular season in second place. This resulted in the Brewers securing home field advantage throughout the playoffs while the Cubs had to face off against the San Diego Padres in the wildcard round.

After dropping game one to Milwaukee, the Cubs are in desperate need of winning game two in order to avoid playing in an elimination scenario. Luckily for Chicago, their defense will be able to keep the contest tight with Shota Imanaga getting the start as the Cubs pitcher is currently averaging an ERA of 3.73 and a WHIP of 0.988.

Even though his Strikeout Rate is low, Imanaga still excels at putting opposing batters in low quality contact scenarios as he averages less than one Hit Against per Inning Pitched. Imanaga also receives a high level of support from his back end which increases his chances of keeping a clean sheet as the Cubs defense ranks top-5 in Defensive Efficiency and in Fielding Percentage.

As for Aaron Ashby, the Brewers pitcher has been successful in his efforts of keeping opposing runners off the bases as he currently averages an ERA of 2.16, a WHIP of 1.170, and a FIP of 2.70. His success stems from his high Whiff Rate as he also averages over one Strikeout per Inning Pitched. With both pitchers in a favorable position to put together a dominant performance, expect no runs to be scored in the first inning.

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