Best NRFI Bets Today: Back a Cy Young Contender Against the Mets

In a divisional matchup against the New York Mets, Chris Sale will be able to continue to play at a high level by neutralizing a lineup who grades out poorly in most offensive metrics. Later in the night, negative regression looms large over the Milwaukee Brewers as they face off against Christian Scott who creates Whiffs at a high rate.

Best NRFI Bets for Tuesday, July 28

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Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets - Chris Sale vs. Christian Scott (7:10 PM, EST)

With Chris Sale on the mound, the New York Mets inability to make contact will be on full display, resulting in an early exit out of the first inning.

Under 0.5 Run (-130) at BetMGM Sportsbook

A contender for the NL Cy Young award, Chris Sale has been dominant on the mound this season, averaging an ERA of 2.19, a WHIP of 1.054, and a FIP of 2.61. Sale’s hot start to the year can be attributed to his power and precision, generating more than one Strikeout per inning. Unsurprisingly, these impressive performances have kept his NL Cy Young odds highly favorable among top contenders.

In a NL East divisional matchup against the New York Mets, Sale will be able to strengthen his claim for the award by taking advantage of an offense who resides near the bottom of the board in Hit Rate, RBIs, Runs Scored, and in On Base Percentage. Especially with his back end narrowing the width of their gaps in coverage, fielding a group who ranks above league average in Defensive Efficiency. A dominant performance here could also significantly impact the current NL East odds.

Locked into a duel with Sale, the Mets are expected to roll out Christian Scott who also creates Whiffs at a high rate, giving up less than one Hit Against per inning. With the Braves crashing down the board in On Base Percentage, Scott will be able to exploit their ice cold bats while generating a heavy volume of Strikeouts and keep a clean sheet.

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Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants - Logan Henderson vs. Landen Roupp (9:45 PM, EST)

Expect the Milwaukee Brewers to fall hard back down to reality against Logan Henderson, battling it out against an arm who excels at avoiding contact.

Under 0.5 Run (-135) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Since the start of the regular season, the Milwaukee Brewers have been efficient on offense, ranking in the top-6 in Hit Rate and in On Base Percentage. Their consistency helps reduce the amount of negative variance in their contests, making it easier to pull away on the scoreboard.

Unfortunately for the Brewers, the top of their order will struggle to recapture the same success they had earlier in the year against the San Francisco Giants as they face off against Landen Roupp who is averaging a FIP of 3.13. Even with his back end struggling in coverage, Roupp’s command of the ball will neutralize the Brewers at the plate, conceding less than one Hit per inning.

On the other side of the field, Logan Henderson gets the nod for the Brewers, bringing with him an arm that is averaging an ERA of 3.05 and a WHIP of 0.939. With the Giants ranking near dead last in RBIs and in On Base Percentage, Henderson will be able to keep them out of scoring position by forcing them to lose control of their swings while painting the strike zone and hold them scoreless in the first inning.

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Best YRFI Bets Today

• Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates - Brandon Pfaadt vs. Bubba Chandler - The Pittsburgh Pirates are in a favorable position to get off to a hot start against Brandon Pfaadt by attacking an arm who is averaging an ERA of 4.43, a WHIP of 1.323, and a FIP of 4.43.

• Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins - Aaron Nola vs. Sandy Alcantara - Expect Runs to be scored in the first inning with Philadelphia and Miami battling it out against a pair of arms who are averaging an ERA higher than 4.00 while supported by two defenses who rank below league average in Fielding Percentage.

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