Best NRFI Bets Today, August 15

Written by: Jay Sanin
Published August 15, 2023
4 min read
Best NRFI Bets Today August 15

Late in the season, hitters are figuring out opposing pitching in Major League Baseball. As a result, you will see some interesting prices in the NRFI/YRFI betting market, prices that we have spotlighted in our best bets for this market on Tuesday.

New York Yankees vs Atlanta Braves - Luis Severino (R) vs Bryce Elder (R) 

Our Pick: Under 0.5 (+130 at PointsBet)

Something you will notice in our MLB NRFI card on Tuesday is how heavily juiced first-inning overs are. You will not find a better example of that than the game between the New York Yankees and Braves. There, the first inning over is set at -170 at PointsBet, and on principle, the right play is to take the NRFI at a plus price at +130 for this contest.

Yes, Luis Severino has had his struggles this season for the Yankees, as he enters this matchup with a 2-7 record and an ERA just over 8.00. And yes, he is facing a Braves lineup that is one of the most lethal in all of baseball. But laying the kind of vig that on a run to be scored or not scored in the first inning of a game is terrible risk management, so we are obligated to go with the under.

Helping our cause will be the pitching of Bryce Elder, who takes the hill for the Braves in this contest. Elder has gone a respectable 8-4 with an ERA of 3.64 this season and is more than capable of shutting down a struggling Yankee lineup in the first inning here. Look for him to do just that on Tuesday night in Atlanta.

Baltimore Orioles vs San Diego Padres - Jack Flaherty (R) vs Michael Wacha (R) 

Our Pick: Under 0.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

Another game where the first-inning total is juiced to the over is in San Diego, where the Baltimore Orioles will visit the San Diego Padres. In that game, a couple of solid starting pitchers will take the mound, as Michael Wacha and Jack Flaherty will do the honors. We expect both pitchers to come out firing in the first inning of that game, to help us see a scoreless contest in the second inning of play.

Both Flaherty and Wacha have eight wins to their names on the season, with Wacha posting a better ERA to this point in the year. Flaherty’s ERA is set at 4.33 going into this game, while Wacha’s is a more stingy 2.84 for the season. But with Flaherty getting a change of scenery at the trade deadline, moving from St. Louis to Baltimore, he could end up pitching better down the stretch this season.

These two teams played a low-scoring game on Monday, with the Padres taking a 4-1 loss at home to the Orioles in that contest. It will be interesting to see if that trend continues given the pitching matchup in this contest. For the first inning at least, our money is on that happening, as we expect a scoreless first inning to come to fruition at Petco Park.

Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins - Alex Faedo (R) vs Bailey Ober (R) 

Our Pick: Under 0.5 (-102 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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The final NRFI wager on our card for this Tuesday night is from the AL Central matchup between the Minnesota Twins and Detroit Tigers. This is a matchup featuring two offenses that are not all that impressive. And with the NRFI side of the first inning total being at close to even money, we will happily take a crack at betting on a scoreless first inning between these teams on Tuesday night.

What really stands out going into this game is just how inept the offense of the Detroit Tigers has been throughout the 2023 season. They rank 29th out of 30 MLB teams in runs scored this season, ahead of only the Oakland Athletics in that category. As a result, expecting very little of the Tigers offense in the first inning of this game makes a lot of sense, as they haven’t produced much all season long.

Meanwhile, the Twins rank in the bottom-10 in baseball in terms of the frequency in which they score in the first inning themselves. They have been held scoreless in the first inning 72.50% of the time this season so far. Expect that trend to continue, as the Twins will be held scoreless in the bottom of the first inning to help us cash this bet at close to even money.

Feel free to check out other MLB betting sites for more betting opportunities!

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Jay Sanin

Sports Betting Analyst & Content Specialist

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MLB
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Jay Sanin is a sports bettor and writer from New York. He has been handicapping since the moment he was old enough to gamble legally, with his specialties being niche sports like the WNBA and XFL. He’s been told he has a voice for radio. He also has a face for radio.
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