Best MLB Home Run Predictions Today: Who’s On First?

Thursday has a ton of great home run prop bets on the board, but we believe the best involve some of the league’s hard-hitting first basemen. Three of them stand out above the rest, entering today with hot bats and favorable pitching matchups, setting the table for some long balls. 

Below, we’ll share our three home run predictions for today, along with why we love each.

For more daily MLB coverage, check our selection of the Best NRFI Bets Today.

Best Home Run Predictions for Thursday, June 4

Odds are provided by FanDuel Sportsbook. Sign up for a FanDuel account and claim your bonus: Get $350 in Bonus Bets – Guaranteed when you bet $5 every day for 7 days. Read more about this offer in our FanDuel Promo Code overview.

If you are in a state where FanDuel is not yet legal, we recommend trying Kalshi, one of the best prediction markets in the US. Sign up using Kalshi promo code WSN to get a $10 bonus after making 100 contracts.

Home Run Picks for Thursday, June 4

There are some fantastic home run props out there today, but some stand above the rest. Below are the players we’re locked in on. 

Jake Bauers Anytime Home Run (+420) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The 30-year-old has been one of the leading reasons for the Brewers’ place atop the NL Central, thanks largely to his play at home. His stellar production continues to shift the NL Central odds in Milwaukee's favor. When batting at American Family Field this season, the left-handed hitter has a .951 OPS and eight of his ten home runs. One of those came in the first game of this series, and we believe he’ll add another to close it out today.

Another big reason we love this bet is that former Brewer Adrian Houser (2-5, 5.59 ERA, 1.56 WHIP) will be on the mound for the Giants. The 33-year-old seemed to be settling in with his new team over his first three starts in May, but allowed seven runs on 15 hits over his last two (8 1/3 innings). 

While he is known as a groundball pitcher, Houser has allowed nine home runs over his last nine starts. His WHIP and ERA also suggest he is throwing plenty of bad pitches, meaning batters will have more chances to take him deep in 2026.

Houser will be facing Bauers for the first time, but his play against left-handed hitters has been awful. Over 135 at-bats, lefties are batting .356 with seven home runs and a whopping 1.077 OPS.

Bet $5 Daily at FanDuel, Get $350 in Bonus Bets

Bryce Harper Anytime Home Run (+360) at FanDuel Sportsbook

While he isn’t the perennial MVP candidate he once was, Bryce Harper is having another fantastic year for the Phillies. The first baseman already has 14 home runs while batting a solid .262. While he finished May in a mini-slump, Harper broke out of that on June 1 by launching a home run against the same Padres team he’ll face today. Another big performance this afternoon could significantly boost his current MLB MVP candidate odds.

San Diego will have Lucas Giolito (2-0, 4.97 ERA, 1.74 WHIP) starting against Philadelphia today. The veteran made his season debut on May 17 and allowed just 1 run over his first two starts (10 innings), but issued eight walks and five hits, signaling something wasn’t quite right. Those struggles cost him in his last start, allowing the Nationals to plate four runs and a pair of home runs over just 2 ⅔ innings.

Surprisingly, Giolito and Harper have only faced each other five times over their long MLB careers. Harper has gotten the best of the pitcher, taking him deep in two of those at-bats.

Score $50 in Bonus Bets Every Day for 7 Days at FanDuel

Nick Kurtz Anytime Home Run (+265) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The A’s are off to a solid start in 2026, and Nick Kurtz is a big reason why. The first baseman was electric in May, posting five home runs, 26 RBIs, and a 1.025 OPS. Things didn’t cool off as the calendar turned to June, with Kurtz launching a home run against the Cubs on Tuesday. While his hot bat can’t last forever, there is plenty of reason it will continue today.

That’s because Shota Imanaga (4-6, 4.37 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) will be starting for Chicago. The lefty has elite stuff, but consistency hasn’t been his specialty. He started the season going 4-3 with a 2.32 ERA over his first nine starts. 

However, over his last three outings, Imanaga has allowed 20 runs over just 14 2/3 innings. He surrendered a stunning eight home runs during that run, allowing three in both of his last two outings.

Bet $5 at FanDuel and Lock In Your $350 Bonus