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Alsco Uniforms 302 Predictions: Can Josh Berry Win a Third Straight Vegas Playoff Race?

Written by: Reid Spencer
Updated October 13, 2023
11 min read
  • John Hunter Nemechek is likely to run well, but his odds are too short.
  • Josh Berry goes for three in a row in the fall Las Vegas Playoff race
  • As third choice for Saturday’s race, Austin Hill is an attractive proposition.

Alsco Uniforms 302 Betting Odds

Odds taken from DraftKings Sportsbook. Sign up using our exclusive link and get Bet $5, Get $200 + No Sweat SGP.

John Hunter Nemechek+175
Justin Allgaier+330
Austin Hill+550
Josh Berry+700
Cole Custer+800
Sam Mayer+1400
Brandon Jones+1400
Sammy Smith+1600
Chandler Smith+2000
Sheldon Creed+2800
Riley Herbst+4000

Our Picks for the Alsco Uniforms 302

  • Austin Hill to win the race at +550
  • Riley Herbst to finish in the top three at +1100 and top five at +500
  • Chandler Smith to finish in the top three at +550

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Alsco Uniforms 302

Alsco Uniforms 302 Predictions

John Hunter Nemechek Will Be Fast, But the Odds Are Stingy

Let’s get real here. Sure, John Hunter Nemechek has posted a series-best seven victories so far this season, and his Joe Gibbs Racing Supra has consistently been a rocket ship.

And, yes, Nemechek tops the NASCAR Xfinity Series standings by a comfortable 16 points entering the opening race of the Round of 8 in the Playoffs.

But to offer Nemechek as the favorite at +175 via DraftKings Sportsbook in the Alsco Uniforms 302 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway doesn’t jibe with his history at the track.

Nemechek has only one top five to his credit in five starts at the 1.5-mile intermediate speedway, and that was a second-place run in 2019 when he was driving for GMS Racing.

Our advice? Stay away from Nemechek this weekend. The odds are just too puny.

Josh Berry Hasn’t Shown the Form that Produced Two Las Vegas Wins

It might be tempting to bet on Josh Berry this weekend. After all, the driver of the No. 8 JR Motorsports Chevrolet won the fall Las Vegas race in 2021 and 2022.

The problem is that the two-time defending race winner hasn’t shown the form that made the racing industry take notice in 2022, when he won three races.

You might argue that Berry already has 10 top fives this season, just one short of his 2022 total. We would counter that he has no victories this season and hasn’t shown consistent winning speed.

So even though Berry is offered at a tempting +700 via DraftKings Sportsbook, we would advise steering clear of the future Stewart-Haas Cup driver this week.

Berry, who was knocked out of the Playoffs last Saturday at the Charlotte Road Course, finished fifth in the spring race at Las Vegas. He may duplicate that result, but we don’t think a win is in the cards.

Austin Hill Is Our Pick This Week—at a Very Reasonable Price

If John Hunter Nemechek is overvalued this week, Austin Hill is equally undervalued.

Here’s the justification: Hill is at his best on large ovals. He has won a career-best four times this season, including the spring race at Las Vegas.

Hill is second to Nemechek in the Playoff standings, currently 21 points above the cut line for the Championship 4 finale.

And all else being equal, Hill is a much better choice at +550 that Nemechek is at +175. Hence, Hill is our pick this week.

We also like hometown driver Riley Herbst and Playoff driver Chandler Smith to finish in the top three at +1100 and +550, respectively (DraftKings).

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How to Watch the Alsco Uniforms 302

  • Race: Alsco Uniforms 302 NASCAR Xfinity Series race
  • Location: Las Vegas Motor Speedway
  • Time: Saturday, Oct. 14, 3:30 p.m. ET
  • How to Watch: ESPN+
Image for Reid Spencer


Reid Spencer

220 Articles

Award-winning motorsports writer Reid Spencer has served as lead writer for the NASCAR Wire Service for 16 years, having also spent a four-year stint as NASCAR columnist and beat writer for Sporting News. He is currently serving as president of the National Motorsports Press Association. Email: [email protected]

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