2021 NBA Draft Lottery Odds, Predictions

Written by: Christian Jope
Updated October 14, 2022
5 min read
Nba Draft Lottery Odds
  • While the NBA Playoffs are in full swing, there are 14 teams whose summer will be greatly affected by some ping-pong balls at the NBA Draft Lottery!
  • The Houston Rockets, Detroit Pistons, and Orlando Magic have the joint best odds to win the first overall pick.
  • We will see the new weighted odds for the NBA Draft Lottery for the second straight season.

The premier summer event for the NBA is the NBA Playoffs and the eventual NBA Finals. However, for the teams that didn’t make the post-season cut, their focus will be on the ping pong balls that will drop and determine the selection order for the upcoming NBA Draft.

This will be the 37th iteration of the NBA Draft Lottery, which will determine the selection order for the first 14 picks of the 2021 NBA Draft. The remaining 16 selections are set in inverse order of each team’s finish through the 2020-2021 NBA season.

Each “Lottery Team” will have a representative attending the NBA Draft Lottery.

Who Has the Best Odds to Win the Number One Overall Pick?

The NBA Draft Lottery’s odds are based on the participating teams’ final record through the most recent NBA season.

While in the past the odds have been descending in favor of the team with the worst record in the league, the NBA has implemented a new weighted odds system in order to level out chances and discourage “tanking”.

The latest odds for the 2021 NBA Draft Lottery are provided by BetMGM. Click on ‘Bet now’ below to head to the sportsbook and place your bet.

Get a $600 Risk-Free bet when you sign up at BetMGM.

No 1 Overall Pick NBA Draft Lottery Odds

Team Odds for No. 1
Houston Rockets +550
Detroit Pistons +550
Orlando Magic +550
Oklahoma City Thunder +650
Cleveland Cavaliers +650
Minnesota Timberwolves +900
Toronto Raptors +1100
Sacramento Kings +1600
Chicago Bulls +1600
New Orleans Pelicans +1600
Charlotte Hornets +4000
San Antonio Spurs +5000
Indiana Pacers +8000
Golden State Warriors +15000

Weighted Odds for No 1 Overall Pick

Team Weighted Odds for No. 1 Overall Pick
Houston Rockets 14.00%
Detroit Pistons 14.00%
Orlando Magic 14.00%
Oklahoma City Thunder 11.50%
Cleveland Cavaliers 11.50%
Minnesota Timberwolves 9.00%
Toronto Raptors 7.50%
Sacramento Kings 4.50%
Chicago Bulls 4.50%
New Orleans Pelicans 4.50%
Charlotte Hornets 1.80%
San Antonio Spurs 1.70%
Indiana Pacers 1.00%
Golden State Warriors 0.50%

2021 NBA Draft Lottery Predictions

Best of the Worst

The Golden State Warriors, Indiana Pacers, San Antonio Spurs, and Charlotte Hornets all own some of the worst odds to jump up the draft board. The Hornets have the best chance for a top four pick, at just 8.5%. We wouldn’t count on any of these teams to jump the board and stick to their 11-14 range.

Looking to Jump the Line

While all teams are looking to jump the line in terms of draft order, the Toronto Raptors and the Minnesota Timberwolves are the most interesting cases.

For Toronto, they own a 31.9% chance of jumping into the top four, while clearing seventh overall means they’re guaranteed the slot.

The Minnesota Timberwolves really need to find themselves in the top three.

The reason for their desperation is the fact that their first-round draft pick will be conveyed to the Golden State Warriors should it fall outside of the top three picks.

In the 2020 NBA Draft the Chicago Bulls, who sat in the Toronto Raptors’ position jumped up to fourth overall. The New York Knicks, who sat in the Timberwolves position in 2020, fell to eighth.

Top of the Pack

Between the Houston Rockets, Detroit Pistons, and Orlando Magic, feel free to put a wager on any of these teams finishing in the top three of the 2021 NBA Draft.

The three teams have the highest odds to finish in the top three of the 2021 NBA Draft, but be wary of the Houston Rockets. The Rockets have a 52.1% chance of a top-four pick, but a 47.9% chance of dropping all the way to fifth.

When Is the 2021 NBA Draft Lottery?

The 2021 NBA Draft Lottery will be occurring on Tuesday, June 22nd, 2021.

The event will be televised on ESPN at 8:30 PM EST.

Who Is Participating in the 2021 NBA Draft Lottery?

There will be 14 teams participating in the NBA Draft Lottery.

These teams did not qualify for the most recent NBA post-season, or they acquired the rights to a higher pick. The participants are as follows:

Team Conference 20-21 Regular Season Record
Houston Rockets West 17-55
Detroit Pistons East 20-52
Orlando Magic East 21-51
Oklahoma City Thunder West 22-50
Cleveland Cavaliers East 22-50
Minnesota Timberwolves West 23-49
Toronto Raptors East 27-45
Sacramento Kings West 31-41
Chicago Bulls East 31-41
New Orleans Pelicans West 31-41
Charlotte Hornets East 33-39
San Antonio Spurs West 33-39
Indiana Pacers East 34-38
Golden State Warriors West 39-33

Who Is Representing Each Team at the 2021 NBA Draft Lottery?

Each team at the 2021 NBA Draft Lottery will have a representative through the process.

These representatives are usually affiliates of the club who represent the teams’ future desires and act as somewhat of a good luck charm through the process.

Team Representative Title
Houston Rockets Hakeem Olajuwon NBA Legend
Detroit Pistons Ben Wallace NBA Legend
Orlando Magic Jeff Weltman President, Basketball Operations
Oklahoma City Thunder Nazr Mohammed Oklahoma City Blue GM/Thunder Pro Scout
Cleveland Cavaliers Koby Altman General Manager
Minnesota Timberwolves Anthony Edwards Player
Toronto Raptors Fred Vanvleet Player
Sacramento Kings Monte McNair General Manager
Chicago Bulls Marc Eversley General Manager
New Orleans Pelicans Swin Cash VP of Basketball Operations & Team Development
Charlotte Hornets Miles Bridges Player
San Antonio Spurs Peter J. Holt Managing Partner
Indiana Pacers Nancy Leonard Former Pacers Executive
Golden State Warriors Rick Welts President and Chief Operating Officer

Image for Christian Jope

Christian Jope

NBA Betting Analyst

Betting Picks
Christian Jope is a writer, social media strategist, and data analyst. A Queen’s University Alumni, Christian is an author and social media strategist with Raptors Cage, while also working closely with MLSE and Canada Basketball through community-driven events.
Nationality: Canadian
Education: Bachelor of Arts (Applied Economics)
Favourite Sportsbook: FanDuel Sportsbook
Favourite Casino: BetMGM Casino
6 years
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