NBA Player Props and Best Bets for Wednesday 2/14/24

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The Miami Heat annihilated the Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points without Jimmy Butler in the lineup as the Doc Rivers era continues to disappoint, while the Phoenix Suns held on down the stretch to knock off the Sacramento Kings 130-125., 

Here are our favorite NBA player prop picks for Wednesday.

Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Use our FanDuel promo code for $200 in bonus bets.

Kyrie Irving Over 25.5 Points (-120) at FanDuel

The Dallas Mavericks run plays involving isolations at the second-highest frequency and score the third-most points per possession in doing so—meanwhile, the San Antonio Spurs allow the fourth-most points per possession involving isolation, which presents a favorable matchup for both Irving and Luka Doncic, two of the game’s best one-on-one attackers.

Although the Spurs are up to eighth in points allowed per 100 possessions over their last 10 games, that’s mostly because of Victor Wembanyama’s presence on the interior. Irving, who averaged 25.2 points on 42.4% three-point shooting to start February, has a great chance to deal damage from the perimeter and go over his total.

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Paolo Banchero Over 6.5 Rebounds (-108) at FanDuel

Banchero hasn’t had the best start to the month as a rebounder but averages 6.9 per game for the season and is an even 4-4 on overs during his last eight games. However, as the Orlando Magic prepare for the second night of a back-to-back, he has a nice matchup against the New York Knicks.

New York is riddled with injuries, including Julius Randle, Mitchell Robinson, and OG Anunoby. Donte DiVincenzo and Isaiah Hartenstein are also questionable and could sit out since this is the last game before the All-Star break, which means less qualified shooters missing more shots than usual and fewer rebounders to fend off the Magic.

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Pascal Siakam Over 3.5 Assists (-113) at FanDuel

Siakam is 9-5 on overs since his arrival in Indiana and averages 4.8 assists per game. Even with Tyrese Haliburton returning to the lineup recently, he continued to be an active playmaker and facilitator and now has a grudge match against the team that traded him against his wishes, the Toronto Raptors.

Toronto has the worst net rating in the league over the last 15 games and allowed the fifth-most points per 100 possessions during that time. The Indiana Pacers have a prolific offense and should find success against a leaky defense, even though they lost to the lowly Charlotte Hornets their last time out. 

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Duncan Robinson Under 13.5 Points (-104) at FanDuel

This is a great time to fade the obvious. Robinson scored 23 points in 26 minutes against the Bucks on Wednesday night and is going to get his share of looks with Terry Rozier and Josh Richardson out and Jimmy Butler still waiting to make his return.

While Robinson was great a night ago and scored 15 points the game before, he’s about to face a Philadelphia 76ers team that holds opponents to the fourth-lowest three-point percentage (35%). He’ll also be on the second night of a road back-to-back, which is a tough situation for players of all levels.

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Alperen Sengun to Record a Double-Double (-120) at FanDuel

Sengun did not cash this line in his last two games but had a stretch where he posted a double-double in 10 of 11 outings immediately before that. He consistently gets to double-digit points and averaged close to or more than nine rebounds every month of the season thus far, which is just about enough to cash this prop.

The Houston Rockets are taking on the Memphis Grizzlies, who have the worst rebound rate in basketball over the last 15 games, and whose center (Jaren Jackson Jr.) would rather do pretty much anything other than rebound the ball. Memphis also shoots a worse percentage from the field than any other team, which means lots of missed shots and little resistance for Sengun on the boards.

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