NBA Player Props and Best Bets for Wednesday 2/28/24

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Max Strus capped off a ridiculous fourth quarter with the second-longest game-winning buzzer-beater in NBA history as the Cleveland Cavaliers beat the Dallas Mavericks 121-119, while Milwaukee Bucks beat the surging Charlotte Hornets by 28 points after holding them to just 26 in the first half. 

Here are our favorite NBA player prop picks for Wednesday.

Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Use our FanDuel promo link and get $150 in bonus bets if your first bet wins.

Zion Williamson Over 23.5 Points (-115) at FanDuel

Williamson scored 21 points on Tuesday but only played 29 minutes against a depleted New York Knicks team, so he should be fresh for Wednesday’s clash with the Indiana Pacers. He played three back-to-backs this season and scored 27 points in two of those games (and 23 in the other).

The Pacers are improving defensively, but they still allow the most points in the paint per game, which bodes well for the former first-overall pick. Indy also plays at the second-fastest pace in the league and will ensure there are plenty of possessions, and shots, for everyone to go around.

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Santi Aldama Over 1.5 Threes (+168) at FanDuel

Aldama is having a terrible month shooting the basketball, averaging just 41.9% from the field and 31.5% from beyond the arc. He also made just one three in five of his last six games and is about to take on the Minnesota Timberwolves’ league-leading defense. So why are we looking at him to go over, you might ask?

Aldama took 5.4 threes per game during February, which is more than enough volume for him to get to two makes in a game. He’s also going to look to space the floor to decongest the paint against the seven-foot pairing of Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert, which could lead to more kick-outs on drives to the rim than usual.

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Luka Doncic Over 51.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-108) at FanDuel

Luka is playing out of his mind, averaging 33.7 points, 9.7 assists, and 9.5 rebounds in February. He also put up 45 points, 14 helpers, and nine boards against an elite defensive team in the Cleveland Cavaliers last night and will now go up against the Toronto Raptors, who are 26th in defensive rating and 28th in opponents’ assists over the last 10 games.

Although the Mavs are on the second night of a back-to-back, that shouldn’t be a huge both to the Slovenian superstar. He put up a 35/18/9 box score in his last back-to-back on Feb. 6, beat this line in three straight back-to-backs, and nine of his last 13 games overall.

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Domantas Sabonis Under 8.5 Assists (+100) at FanDuel

Sabonis is quietly having an all-time season, averaging 20 points, 13.2 rebounds, and 8.5 assists on 62.1% shooting. He handed out double-digit assists in eight of his last 10 games and averaged 10.5 as part of a 21-point triple-double for the month of February, but once again, we’re betting on that trend coming to an end.

The Sacramento Kings are facing the Denver Nuggets, who rank ninth in points allowed per 100 possessions, play at the fourth-slowest tempo in basketball, and allow the eighth-fewest assists per game. Nikola Jokic isn’t an athletic defender, but he is smart with active hands and could disrupt some of Sabonis’ go-to looks around the free-throw line.

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D’Angelo Russell Over 17.5 Points (-128) at FanDuel

The D’Angelo Russell renaissance is one of the reasons that the Los Angeles Lakers suddenly seem as if they have a chance to reach the Western Conference Finals just like they did last year. He dropped 20+ points in 13 of his last 18 outings and averaged 20.2 for February.

D’Lo just finished dropping 20 on the Phoenix Suns on another impressive three-point shooting night and will be an important piece against the Los Angeles Clippers, who are going to use their best defenders on LeBron James and Anthony Davis. If the past month and change are any indication, he’s worth the risk.

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