NBA Player Props and Best Bets for Thursday 3/7/24

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The Golden State Warriors picked up a statement win at home, ending the Milwaukee Bucks’ six-game win streak with a 125-90 win, while the Sacramento Kings rallied to knock off the Los Angeles Lakers behind 44 points from De’Aaron Fox.

Here are our favorite NBA player prop picks for Thursday.

Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Use our FanDuel promo link and get $150 in bonus bets if your first bet wins.

Rudy Gobert Over 15.5 Points (-128) at FanDuel

The French Rejection only averages 13.8 points per game but is going to play heavy minutes as Karl-Anthony Towns is set to miss the game due to an injury. He put up 25 points in his last outing against the Portland Trail Blazers and played 40.7 minutes per game through three games in March, which means he should spend enough time on the court to reach his over.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are taking on the Indiana Pacers, who allowed the second-most points in the paint per game and are 21st in defensive efficiency over their last 10 games. Gobert only scored five points when these teams squared off earlier in the year, but Towns also had 40 in that game.

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Bradley Beal Over 5.5 Assists (+106) at FanDuel

Beal dished out six helpers in each of his last two games, the most recent being an overtime win on the road against the Denver Nuggets on Tuesday. He’s essentially the acting point guard while Devin Booker rehabs a sprained ankle, even if he isn’t a natural-born facilitator.

The Suns are taking on a Toronto Raptors squad that gave up 139 points to the New Orleans Pelicans their last time out and rank 26th in assists allowed over their last 10 games. They’re also down their best player, Scottie Barnes, while Jakob Poeltl, Bruce Brown, and potentially Ochai Agbaji will also miss the contest due to injuries.

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Jamal Murray Over 21.5 Points (-128) at FanDuel

Murray isn’t always the most consistent point guard in the league, but he lives for the big games. He scored 24 and 28 points in his last two games against the Los Angeles Lakers and the Suns and beat this line in four of his last five games, which puts him on a good path heading into one of the games of the year. 

The Boston Celtics have the best record in basketball but had their 20-game unbeaten streak ended by the Denver Nuggets earlier this year, a game in which Murray dropped 35 points on 71.4% field goal shooting. Expect the two title favorites to throw haymakers all night long, and for Murray to find a way over his line.

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Luka Doncic Under 10.5 Assists (-128) at FanDuel

Luka is trying his best. The Slovenian superstar put up three straight 37-plus-point triple-doubles, yet the Dallas Mavericks lost all three games. It’s not as if he didn’t already dominate the ball, but it’s time for him to be selfish and sacrifice his assists if it means he can score 40 or 50 points to get his team back on the right track.

The Mavs are taking on the Miami Heat, who have an excellent defense (second in points allowed per 100 possessions on the road). It wouldn’t be a shock to see Miami successfully take most of Luka’s teammates out of the game, even if they struggle to lock him down since he’s one of the few truly unguardable players. 

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Jonathan Kuminga Over 16.5 Points (-118) at FanDuel

Kuminga’s ascension is a major reason the Golden State Warriors have suddenly become a legitimate playoff threat again. His physicality and finishing moving downhill force opponents to send more resources into the driving lanes and create space for the three-point shooters, which opens up the team’s offense.

Kuminga dropped 20 points against the Milwaukee Bucks in only 25 minutes last night and beat this line in five of his last six games. The Chicago Bulls also have an aging Nikola Vucevic anchoring the restricted area, and the former All-Star is quickly becoming an ever-present defensive liability.

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