NBA Player Props and Best Bets for Thursday 3/14/24

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Domantas Sabonis improved to 10-0 all-time against Anthony Davis as the Sacramento Kings beat the Los Angeles Lakers, while the Denver Nuggets took down the Miami Heat 100-88 in a rematch of the 2023 NBA Finals in South Beach.

Here are our favorite NBA player prop picks for Thursday.

Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Use our FanDuel promo code for a $200 bonus.

Bradley Beal Over 1.5 Threes (-111) at FanDuel

Beal and the Phoenix Suns are preparing for one of the best matchups of the week as they prepare to visit the Boston Celtics. The former Florida Gator beat this line in four of his last five games, including on Saturday when he sank three threes against this same Celtics team in Phoenix.

Boston is the best team in the league and will get Phoenix’s best shot. They also do so much damage from the three-point line that opponents need to attempt to respond in kind, which could be why Beal found so much success against them in their last meeting. He’s also going to draw a lesser (though still great) defender because of the attention paid to Devin Booker and Kevin Durant.

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Fred VanVleet Under 8.5 Assists (-138) at FanDuel

The former NBA champion dished out seven assists in the San Antonio Spurs in his last game. Although he beat his line in four of his last six, he also went under in 10 of his last 16. He also will be in danger of losing assists because Alperen Sengun is no longer in the lineup, which means no easy passes to the team’s most reliable bucket-getter.

The Houston Rockets rank just 26th in points per 100 possessions over their last 10 games and figure to have an even harder time generating offense without Sengun. The Washington Wizards, similarly, are 26th in defensive efficiency during that time, but we expect VanVleet to become more of a scorer moving forward.

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Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 6.5 Assists (-111) at FanDuel

The Greek Freak is doing all that he can for the Milwaukee Buck, averaging 33.4 points, 11.4 rebounds, and 7.6 assists in March. He only handed out four assists in his last game against the Sacramento Kings, but he was also the only player who showed up to that game ready to play in what turned out to be a blowout.

Damian Lillard was on a nice stretch of games and is still shooting 40% from deep this month despite an awful performance against the Kings. As he and the rest of the Bucks look to respond to an embarrassing defeat against a Philadelphia 76ers team they have great familiarity with, expect Giannis to come up with a lot of assists.

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Anfernee Simons Under 22.5 Points (-113) at FanDuel

Simons put up 36 points against the Atlanta Hawks last night and went over this line in six of his last seven games. So then why are we looking at his under, you might ask? The answer has to do almost entirely with the New York Knicks’ defense.

The Knicks held their opponent under 80 points in three straight games for the first time in nearly a decade. The leading scorer from each of those games averaged 20 points, and the teams shot horribly from the field. OG Anunoby is also back in the lineup, which makes their defense even more well-rounded and tough to beat.

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Lu Dort Over 2.5 Threes (+134) at FanDuel

Dort is one of the unsung heroes of the Oklahoma City Thunder amid what is proving to be a historic season for the franchise. The fifth-year player is shooting 41.2% from three-point territory, by far a career-high, on top of providing excellent defense as the team’s primary defender nearly every night.

Dort knocked down three or more threes in four of his last six games, including each of his last two. The Dallas Mavericks allowed the third-most points per 100 possessions since the All-Star break and are somewhat lazy at the three-point line, which forces lots of rotations and leads to open shots if the offense can move the ball quickly enough.

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