NBA Player Props and Best Bets: Jokic, Shai Overs and this SGP

A standalone elimination game between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets highlights the NBA playoff schedule for Thursday, and I have the best player prop picks for the matchup.

The Thunder won the last two encounters after falling into an unexpected 2-1 hole to start the series. They rallied from an eight-point fourth-quarter deficit to win Game 5, but that was also the first time the Nuggets dominated the first three quarters of the game.

This comes one day after the Boston Celtics forced a Game 6 against the New York Knicks back at Madison Square Garden and after the Minnesota Timberwolves breezed to their second straight Western Conference Finals appearance.

Before diving deeper into NBA props, be sure to check our predictions for Thunder vs. Nuggets, game 6.

Here are my best player props for the Thunder vs. Nuggets matchup on Thursday.

Best NBA Prop Bets for Thursday, May 15

Nikola Jokic Over 28.5 Points

Jokic had a terrific start to the series, scoring 42 points in Game 1, and then failed to crack 27 points in the next three, during which he only shot 33.3 percent from the field. He bounced back in style with 44 points on 68 percent shooting to go with five made threes in Game 5.

The Thunder have done a terrific job on defense, but nobody can guard Jokic when he has his game and jump shot going. This is an elimination game at home, one that I don’t expect Jokic to take lightly. I believe he will take tons of shots and get to the over regardless of his level of efficiency.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 29.5 Points

While Christian Braun deserves tons of praise for the job he’s done on the presumptive MVP, that doesn’t change the fact that he went over this line in three of five series games and just scored 31 points on 52.2 percent shooting. Shai’s consistency is what defined his season and is why he’s a solid bet night in and night out.

The Nuggets’ defense has been better than usual, but they’ve continually played single-coverage against Gilgeous-Alexander and given him the green light as a scorer. The Thunder also led all second-round teams in fastbreak points per game, many of which are SGA getting easy buckets in transition. 

Aaron Gordon Over 6.5 Rebounds

Gordon only had five boards in Game 5, but he went over this line in three of five series games and averaged 9.6 rebounds per game. The Nuggets’ biggest strength so far has been their ability to create a margin on the offensive glass, an area in which Gordon is extremely proficient.

I believe that Gordon and the Nuggets will be under strict instruction to crash the offensive glass to create second-chance scoring opportunities. Even OKC’s double-big lineup hasn’t bothered Gordon or the Nuggets’ bigs, and it’s reasonable to expect him to play more than 40 minutes in an elimination game.

Jalen Williams Under 1.5 Threes

Williams came up clutch with a go-ahead three-pointer late in the fourth quarter in Game 5, which secured his third over hit in five games. That said, he only shot 24.1 percent from three and made 1.4 threes per game in this series, which is why there’s a lot of value in betting his under for positive odds.

The Nuggets know they can’t consistently get away with allowing the Thunder to light up the scoreboard from beyond the arc and should be willing to empty the tank with their season on the line. Williams isn’t a great nor a high-volume three-point shooter, so I’m looking to fade him here.

Michael Porter Jr. Under 8.5 Points

Porter Jr. told the media what everyone already knew, which is that he has not contributed to winning basketball games so far. He’s been greatly affected by a shoulder injury, but he still went under in four of five games and went 1-7 (14.3 percent) from the field in back-to-back games.

The Nuggets have to pick their poison with Porter Jr., Russell Westbrook, and Peyton Watson, but I’d believe in Russ making more of a positive impact and stealing Porter Jr.’s minutes. After all, if he isn’t scoring, there’s really no reason to keep him on the floor.

NBA Same-Game Parlay (+391) at FanDuel

-Oklahoma City Thunder (-4.5) at Denver Nuggets

• Nikola Jokic under 7.5 assists: The Nuggets have not been efficient offensively and are facing the best defense in the league, which explains why he went under in every game of this series.

• Isaiah Hartenstein 10+ points: He went over in four of five games and had 15 on 70 percent shooting in Game 5, largely thanks to his patented push shot.

• Jamal Murray 20+ points: He won’t go down without a fight, as seen by him taking 27 shots in Game 5 and ultimately going over in three of five series matchups.

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