I’m 16-4 with NBA Playoffs player prop picks that I shared right here—don’t worry, I have another batch of picks ready to go for Wednesday.
Scoot Henderson played one of the best games of his NBA career while dropping 31 points as the Portland Trail Blazers stole Game 2 from the San Antonio Spurs after Victor Wembanayma left with a concussion. VJ Edgecombe also became the first rookie since Tim Duncan to put up 30 points and 10 rebounds in a playoff game as the Philadelphia 76ers leveled their series with the Boston Celtics.
There are a pair of matchups later today, which will see the Detroit Pistons host the Orlando Magic, and the Oklahoma City Thunder welcome the Phoenix Suns.
Here are my top NBA player prop picks for the playoffs on Wednesday, April 22.
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| Best Home Run Props Today | FanDuel | Kalshi to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Jalen Duren Over 10.5 Rebounds | -130 | Detroit Pistons 78% |
| Cade Cunningham Over 9.5 Assists | -130 | Detroit Pistons 78% |
| Franz Wagner Under 17.5 Points | -108 | Orlando Magic 24% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 29.5 Points | +100 | Oklahoma City Thunder 92% |
| Jalen Williams Over 4.5 Rebounds | -136 | Oklahoma City Thunder 92% |
| Odds and market prices are accurate as of the time of publishing and subject to change before the event. | ||
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Duren only grabbed seven rebounds in 33 minutes in a surprising Game 1 loss, well below his season standard of 10.5 boards per game. He’s now gone under this line in three straight matchups with the Magic dating back to March 1.
While the Magic deserve their praise for stealing Game 1 on the road, they also caught the Pistons after they hadn’t been on the court in a week. As they ratchet up their defensive intensity and force tougher shots for a Magic team that isn’t very efficient shooting the ball, there should be an increase in missed shots, creating more rebounding opportunities for one of the league’s best at cleaning the glass.
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I may have hinted at this in the prop above, but I expect the Pistons to respond to their shocking defeat in the series opener with a complete performance. That includes Cunningham, who only had four assists in Game 1, but split the over/under at two apiece in four total meetings with Orlando this season.
The Magic rank eighth in assists allowed per game, but Cunningham creates the majority of the Pistons’ offense and averaged 9.9 assists per game during the regular season. Detroit shooting better than a lowly 40 percent from the floor, as they did a couple of days ago, will give him a great chance of hitting the over.
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One of the Magic’s biggest shortcomings has been their inability to figure out the balance between Paolo Banchero, Desmond Bane, and Wagner. While the last name in that trio hit the over with 19 points in Game 1, he also took the fourth-most field goals of the five starters in Game 1, behind Bane (20), Jalen Suggs (16), and Banchero (15).
Wagner put up pretty consistent numbers against the Pistons, but he only had one game in which he attempted more than 13 field goals since he returned from an injury on April 1. Any drop in volume or efficiency will put him in grave danger of missing this line.
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The MVP frontrunner scored 25 points in Game 1 despite only going 5-18 (27.8 percent) from the field in a 35-point win. Given that he usually plays more than 29 minutes in a game and shot 55.3 percent on field goals during the regular season, that sounds like a serious issue for the Suns.
Gilgeous-Alexander went under in three of four meetings with the Suns this year. That said, I expect the Suns to have a level of desperation tonight, and that should create an environment in which the Thunder’s main man takes a ton of shots, especially down the stretch.
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Williams snatched seven rebounds in Game 1 in what I think was a brief example of what is to come. The Suns don’t have strong rebounding guards or wings, and Williams is easily capable of averaging close to this number for the series.
The Suns were right in the middle of the league in rebounds allowed per game, and center Mark Williams is questionable after he missed Game 1. This should be a physical game, one that could potentially lead to more missed shots and more rebounding opportunities.
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