NBA Player Props Today: Spurs vs. Thunder Game 7

The best words in sports: Game 7. 

The Western Conference Finals take a trip into the history books with the Oklahoma City Thunder matching up against the San Antonio Spurs, and I have my top player prop picks today for the showdown.

The Spurs put together a dominant showing on their home court in Game 6 to force the best-of-one decider for a chance to compete against the New York Knicks for an NBA championship. The Thunder are -3.5 favorites, although that is the smallest advantage they’ve been given on their home floor this entire series.

With everything to play for today, let’s jump into my top Spurs vs. Thunder Game 7 player prop picks and bets for Saturday, May 30.

Best NBA Player Prop Bets for Saturday, May 30

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Victor Wembanyama over 26.5 points (-102) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Game Sevens aren’t about teams; they are about star players. There’s a clear difference in how the Spurs play when Wembanyama forces the issue and gets involved early and often, and when he resigns to playing within the flow of the offense and letting his teammates carry the load.

Wemby split the over/under in six games up to this point, going over in all of the Spurs’ wins and going under in all of their losses. He also took at least 21 field goals in all of the wins and 16 or fewer in all of their losses, and I can only hope that Wemby and the coaching staff see what’s in front of them and force the ball into his hands.

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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 7.5 assists (-132) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Gilgeous-Alexander hit the over four times in six games in this series, including all three games at home. His two unders could be attributed to playing on the road, and as NBA legend says, role players shoot the ball worse when they aren’t in their building. 

With OKC returning to familiar territory, more made shots from the supporting cast would result in more assists for Gilgeous-Alexander. The Spurs’ defensive plan will be more of the same, seeing as it has been highly effective on Gilgeous-Alexander, but it does leave room for assists if the Thunder players knock down their threes.

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Stephon Castle under 5.5 rebounds (-146) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Castle is an athletic, long, and aggressive player with the ability to snag double-digit rebounds on his day. However, his defensive role and commitment to being airtight on Gilgeous-Alexander largely prevent him from being near the rim when shots go up, thereby limiting his ability to post gaudy rebounding totals.

While the reigning Rookie of the Year has been extremely consistent, he hasn’t hit the over since a double-overtime thriller in Game 1. The Spurs can’t win Game 7 if Castle plays poorly, but his impact shouldn’t be felt on the boards.

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Cason Wallace over 1.5 threes (-106) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Wallace quietly played very well in this series, making 2.2 threes per game on 48.1 percent shooting from deep and cashing the over in four of six games, including his last time on the court. He also went over in two of three at home and shot 7-14 (50 percent) in those outings.

Wallace’s defensive impact, specifically, his disruptive hands in the passing lane, will get him on the court, and Lu Dort’s awful play in this series will help him stay there. Wallace often finds himself open in the corner based on how the Spurs have orchestrated their defense, and I like his chances tonight.

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De’Aaron Fox over 13.5 points (-120) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The math doesn’t support this pick, and I will acknowledge that straight-up. Fox scored all of 14 points on a combined 5-24 (20.8 percent) shooting in his last two games and went under in three of four games in this series.

Fox’s value as a veteran player has been evident in categories such as assists and turnovers, but he will need to put together impactful stretches of play tonight on the road for a shot to go to the Finals. While he was horribly inefficient shooting the ball recently, he was able to get to his spots with regularity, and I believe that he will step up when his team needs him the most.

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