The NBA Playoffs are off to a fiery start, and I picked five of my favorite player props for the Tuesday action.
Cade Cunningham made history in a bad way, logging the most turnovers in a three-game playoff stretch in nearly 50 years as the first-seed Detroit Pistons fell into a 3-1 hole against the eighth-seed Orlando Magic. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander also racked up 31 points and eight assists as the Oklahoma City Thunder swept the Phoenix Suns.
There are three games today, including the Philadelphia 76ers against the Boston Celtics, the Atlanta Hawks visiting the New York Knicks, and the San Antonio Spurs hosting the Portland Trail Blazers.
Here are my top NBA player prop picks and bets for Tuesday, April 28.
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| Best NBA Player Props Today | FanDuel | Kalshi to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Joel Embiid Under 27.5 Points | -132 | Philadelphia 76ers 18% |
| Jalen Johnson Under 9.5 Rebounds | -118 | Atlanta Hawks 32% |
| Jalen Brunson Under 6.5 Assists | -112 | New York Knicks 70% |
| Deni Avdija Over 22.5 Points | -112 | Portland Trail Blazers 17% |
| De’Aaron Fox Over 5.5 Assists | -114 | San Antonio Spurs 84% |
| Odds and market prices are accurate as of the time of publishing and subject to change before the event. | ||
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Embiid returned to the lineup for the first time since April 6 and dropped 26 points on 42.9 percent shooting in Game 4, which resulted in a loss. He took 21 field goals and nine free-throws, which gave him the volume to cash the over, although I’m not sure that will stick.
The former MVP took 18.3 field goals per game this season, and his dominating the shot distribution basically took VJ Edgecombe out of the game and limited Tyrese Maxey’s opportunities. That’s not the way that the Sixers are going to have a chance against the Celtics, which is ultimately why I believe he will take fewer shots and score fewer points.
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Johnson averaged 10.3 rebounds per game during the regular season, but he sits at 7.0 per game with three unders in four games in the ongoing series. His only over was when he had exactly 0 boards, only 0.5 above the minimum requirement.
The Knicks were one of the best teams in the NBA in limiting their opponents’ rebounds, and they allowed fewer than 40 per game in the playoffs. As the pace continues to slow down and rebounds become even more valuable, Johnson should stay under this line.
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I’m not feeling too confident in Brunson, which is a bad sign, given how important he was to the Knicks during their previous playoff runs. The Hawks’ length and physicality have played a huge part in him shooting 41.6 percent from the field and dropping his assists total from 6.8 in the regular season to 5.3 in the series, while his turnovers are up from 2.4 to 3.5.
Brunson, who turned an ankle in his last game, isn’t the type of player to pass the ball when his shots aren’t falling—if anything, he’ll only take more. The Hawks’ defense has been stout, and I expect Brunson to fail to light up the world as a playmaker.
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Avdija has experienced the terror that is the Spurs’ defense, recording games of 38.5 and 20 percent shooting from the floor in this series. That said, he also had two games where he shot 57.1 percent, and he split the over/under at two games apiece.
This is an elimination game for the Trail Blazers, so it’s reasonable to expect their best player to take a steady number of shots. He got to the free-throw line 25 times over the last two games and went over in all three regular-season meetings with the Spurs, which is reason enough to back him.
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Fox has quietly played well in this series, averaging 20 points, 6.3 assists, and 4.3 rebounds per game on efficient shooting splits. He hit the over in three of four games in the series, while the Trail Blazers are in the bottom half of assists allowed per game for teams in the playoffs.
San Antonio’s offense hasn’t had much difficulty in this series, and Fox will spend a lot of time with the ball in his hands. He also went over in two of three regular-season matchups with Portland, and history suggests that he will beat this number again.
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