Alabama Crimson Tide vs Florida Gators Predictions, Picks & Odds

• When Florida has the ball: quarterback controversy has arrived
• When Alabama has the ball: Is it possible to slow this attack?
• X-factors to watch

Alabama Crimson Tide vs Florida Gators Odds

Odds presented by: DraftKings Sportsbook

Alabama Crimson Tide vs Florida Gators Prediction and Picks

The Swamp will be 85,000 strong and absolutely rocking when it welcomes in the No. 1 team in the nation this year and has ESPN’s College Gameday scheduled to be on hand. Alabama hasn’t shown a weakness yet in two blowout wins. Florida is yet to look crisp, but Dan Mullen’s teams rather consistently get up for big games. However Alabama didn’t cover against the spread last week with Mercer and when that happens, it’s almost always a shoo-in that they do well the next week. That half-point is tough, but we’re still going to take Alabama against the spread and the over.

Pick:

Alabama against the spread and the over

Garcia’s 2021 record: (3-2)

Trends to Watch

• Crimson Tide are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS loss
• Crimson Tide are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 conference games
• Crimson Tide are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall
• Crimson Tide are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games in September
• Over is 12-3 in Crimson Tide last 15 games in September
• Crimson Tide are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 head-to-head meetings
• Over is 5-0 in the last 5 head-to-head meetings
• Gators are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss
• Gators are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games
• Over is 5-0 in Gators last 5 vs. a team with a winning record
• Over is 8-3 in Gators last 11 games following a straight-up win
• Over is 20-9 in Gators last 29 home games vs. a team with a winning road record

QB Controversy For the Gators

After three years with Kyle Trask as the unquestioned starter, Florida finds itself in the middle of a quarterback controversy. Emory Jones had been the backup to Trask the past two years — and filled-in in spot duty during that time — so he was the presumed starter entering the season.

But after throwing multiple interceptions and fewer than 150 yards in each of his first two starts this season against Florida Atlantic and South Florida, people are starting to ask questions.

That’s only been compounded by the fact that Anthony Richardson, the Gators backup, has flashed his athleticism when given the chance early this year — he had an 80-yard touchdown run in Week 2 after the opener when he ran for 160 total yards and a score.

It also doesn’t hurt that he just became the first Gator to throw and run for 100+ yards in the same game since some guy named Tim Tebow did the same in 2009.

Mullen didn’t seem to lean one way or the other after the game when asked about it, instead of saying ‘We have two really good quarterbacks, we’ll play two every game.

Alabama Looking Like, Well, Alabama

What else have we come to expect from the program that resembles that of a Super Bowl champion much more than a college football team?

The defending champions “lost” eight draft picks to the first three rounds of the NFL draft in 2021 yet they come in as loaded as ever. One of those picks — quarterback Mac Jones — is now starting for the Patriots, yet of course, the Tide have found a way to replace him with someone putting up even gaudier numbers.

Bryce Young has been a sensation the past two weeks, setting a school record with seven touchdown passes in the first two weeks of the season. He’s been nearly perfect overall, going 46-of-65 for 571 yards, seven scores, and no turnovers.

His success comes in large part because Alabama has a number of weapons to work with on the outside. Transfer from Ohio State Jameson Williams has been the leading receiver thus far, catching seven balls for 157 yards and two touchdowns. John Metchie III has a team-high 11 grabs for 146 yards and a score while Jojo Earle is also over 100 yards through two games.

X-Factors to Watch

If Florida is going to have any chance at this, the “12th man” or the home field advantage is going to have to play a role in this one. The x-factor is going to be if Florida’s defense is at all able to get in the head of Young.

Alabama rarely faces pressure, but going to the swamp for the first time since 2011 is no small game. If the Gators can strike early, this can be a ball game in the fourth.

For the Tide, the x-factor is the run game. Their first two contests have gotten so lopsided so quickly, that we haven’t got to truly see what Alabama’s rushing attack is like.

Senior Brian Robinson Jr. is the lead back and even saw turn behind Najee Harris in recent years, but it remains to be seen if he can be a lead back. If Alabama is going to win tough SEC road games like this, it’s going to need to be able to lean on its run game — this is the first time that’s being put to the test.

How to Watch Alabama Crimson Tide vs Florida Gators