Image for Tony Garcia Tony Garcia - October 25, 2022

Ole Miss Rebels vs Alabama Crimson Tide Predictions, Picks & Odds

Ole Miss Rebels Vs Alabama Crimson Tide
  • When Ole Miss has the ball — if anybody can stop this offense, it’s Bama
  • When Alabama has the ball — need to keep up in the shootout
  • X-factors to watch

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Ole Miss Rebels vs Alabama Crimson Tide Odds

Odds presented by: DraftKings Sportsbook

TeamSpreadMoney LineTotal
Ole Miss Rebels+14.5 (-115)
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+450
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O 79 (-110)
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Alabama Crimson Tide-14.5 (-105)
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-630
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U 79 (-110)
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Ole Miss Rebels vs Alabama Crimson Tide Prediction and Pick

If there’s ever been a higher over/under in an SEC game between two teams ranked this highly, then I certainly don’t remember it. A number that lofty clearly indicates that Vegas is anticipating a shootout but the question remains will the Ole Miss offense be able to keep pace? The answer this year is yes. Bryant-Denny Stadium will be rocking and there’s no tougher environment in college football. But Kiffin’s squad can take a punch (we think). We like Ole Miss to cover the spread.

Pick:

Ole Miss Rebels to Cover the Spread

Garcia’s 2021 record: (x-x)

Trends to Watch

  • Rebels are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record
  • Rebels are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win
  • Crimson Tide are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win
  • Over is 16-5 in Rebels last 21 games following a straight up win
  • Rebels are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall
  • Over is 11-5-1 in Rebels last 17 games in October
  • Over is 5-1-1 in Crimson Tide last 7 games on grass
  • Crimson Tide are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games
  • Crimson Tide are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 conference games
  • Crimson Tide are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in October
  • Crimson Tide are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall
  • Crimson Tide are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record
  • Under is 3-1-1 in Crimson Tide last 5 home games
  • Underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings
  • Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings

Strength on Strength in This Heavyweight Showdown

It might not technically be ranked at the top of the country, but Alabama is certainly one of the best three defenses in the nation. It got back to form against an overmatched Southern Miss team, but a poor showing in the fourth quarter against Florida still lingers.

Preseason All-American linebacker Will Anderson was SEC co-defensive Player of the Week in the Tide’s last true test against Florida, recording seven tackles and 3.5 for loss.

But this Ole Miss offense is another beast entirely. The Rebels attack is the No. 1 unit in the nation entering the game Saturday, averaging 52.7 points per game.

Through the first three games of the season quarterback, Matt Corral has emerged as a Heisman candidate if not the front-runner. In that time Corral has thrown for nearly 1,000 yards (997) with nine touchdowns and no turnovers, completing 68.8 percent (66-of-96) of his passes and added another 158 yards and five touchdowns on the ground.

Dontrario Drummond has emerged early as Corral’s favorite target to replace Elijah Moore, recording 20 catches for 339 yards and four touchdowns to this point. Jonathan Mingo has been dominant as well, with 15 receptions for 290 yards and three scores.

Add in the three-headed monster of Jerrion Early, Henry Parrish Jr., and Snoop Conner that provides enough running back punch to make this offense multi-dimensional and it’s no wonder teams have had such a hard time stopping it.

Alabama Offense Continues to Roll

It was never going to be a contest, but Alabama and Bryce Young dominated really even by their lofty standards. The Heisman front-runner had another nearly flawless day: 20-of-22 for 313 yards, five touchdowns and just one interception.

Six different receivers either caught a touchdown or multiple passes as the Tide totaled nearly 400 yards through the air. Alabama is averaging better than 46 points per game and that’s even after having played two ranked teams in Miami and Florida.

Now will serve as the ultimate benchmark for how legitimate this Ole Miss defense is. Through three games the Rebels are giving up 21 per contest, but after taking a deeper look that’s not doing this defense justice. Ole Miss led by 26-0 in the first game, 37-0 in the second and was up 40-14 in the third game, so these games are lopsided by the time opponents are putting up points.

X-factors to Watch

We’ve already mentioned about a half dozen standouts for Ole Miss, which is why we’re going to go off the field with the X-factor: it’s head coach Lane Kiffin.

Forget about the fact that Ole Miss feels it has a legitimate chance at a College Football Playoff appearance this season and it knows every championship goes through Tuscaloosa — this game is personal for the former Tide offensive coordinator. Kiffin is already one of the most aggressive play callers in the nation, so on a day when you have to be aggressive to beat a team of this caliber on the road, don’t be surprised if he pulls out all the stops.

For Alabama, we’re going to see if a true lead tailback can emerge. It’s not often we four weeks deep into the season and the Tide’s leading rusher has barely eclipsed 200 yards.

But that’s the case with senior Brian Robinson Jr. Alabama has to control the run game and not play at the Rebels’ track-meet pace — that starts with the backfield and Robinson.

How to Watch Ole Miss Rebels vs Alabama Crimson Tide

 Ole Miss Rebels vs Alabama Crimson Tide Information
TeamsNo. 11 Ole Miss Rebels at No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide
LocationBryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, Alabama
TimeSaturday, Oct. 2, 3:30 p.m. EST
How to watchCBS

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AUTHOR

Tony Garcia

188 Articles

Tony writes about baseball for WSN.com after recently graduating with his Masters from the Medill School of Journalism at Northwestern University. Prior to that, Tony was a local sports reporter for MLive Media Group, based out of Jackson, Michigan where he covered everything from high school to professional sports. He graduated from Michigan State in 2015 with a degree in journalism. During his time there he covered the Michigan State football and men’s basketball teams from 2013-15 and hosted a sports radio show on WDBM 89FM.

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