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Best College Basketball Bets Today | NCAAB Picks November 10

Written by: Andrew Norton
Published November 10, 2023
11 min read
Best College Basketball Bets Today November 10

The first Friday of college basketball is here, and with it, we are gifted a fascinating matchup between the No. 12 Arizona Wildcats and the No. 2 Duke Blue Devils. Both teams looked dominant in their first games of the season, but this one will be a completely different test.

Our other matchup is between the No. 3 Purdue Boilermakers, who just walloped Samford by 53 points, and the Morehead State Eagles. Look at our best bets for this Friday’s college basketball slate below!

No. 12 Arizona @ No. 2 Duke

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PICK: Over 154 Points (-112)

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If you couldn’t catch Arizona’s first game against Morgan State, we will recap it: the Wildcats won by a score of 122-59. That’s right; they scored 122 points in a college basketball game, averaging over three per minute of play.

Meanwhile, the Duke Blue Devils had a similar result in their first game of the season, hanging 92 points on the Dartmouth Big Green while shooting a mindboggling 64% from the field as a team.

The point total for this game sits at 154, which is undoubtedly a reflection of the pace that the Wildcats play at and the capabilities of Duke’s offense when it is hot. Can we expect this game to be a shootout that eclipses this massive total, or will this matchup between two top teams result in a lower-scoring affair?

The saying is “Great offense beats great defense” for a reason. These two teams already rank in KenPom’s top seven in adjusted offensive efficiency. While it is way too early to bank on any analytics or statistics with such a small sample size, we still got a good indication of the offensive quality of these two teams from their first games.

The Wildcats will launch many outside shots (12/27 from deep in their first game) and attack the offensive glass on those shots, leading to an abundance of second-chance points both in the paint and on the perimeter. They are quick, pesky, and love to get up shots early in the shot clock, which is a good recipe for going over point totals.

However, their rapid pace (and occasional reckless play) will also allow Duke to cash in on some easy points off of turnovers and in transition when the Wildcats overplay for the offensive rebound. Duke is not a fast team by any stretch, but it may have to be to keep up with Arizona.

There is little doubt that both teams will put up a truckload of points in this game. And with this game being at Cameron Indoor, the Wildcats need some upperclassmen to ease nerves early on. They have that with Caleb Love, Pelle Larsson, Oumar Ballo, Keshad Johnson, and others.

Grab the over in this game.

Morehead State @ #3 Purdue

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

PICK: Purdue -29 (-110)

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Purdue dismantled Samford in its previous game, which was the first of the season for the Boilermakers. They didn’t take long to cover the marginal spread and never looked back. Zach Edey, the 7-foot-4 big man, and reigning Wooden Award winner, looked terrific as always, posting 16 points and pulling down 11 rebounds; however, it was the Boilermakers’ supporting cast that really impressed.

The two big questions entering this season for Purdue were “Will they improve their three-point shooting?” and “Will we see supporting players step up into firmer, co-starring roles this season?” It is too early to feel like both of these questions have been answered, but the first game gave fans faith that they would be.

Purdue knocked down 16 of 29 three-pointers (55.2%) against Samford, displaying much-improved shooting as a team, which will be imperative in its quest for a National Championship. Last season, the Boilermakers did not have one game in which they shot 48% from behind the arc, let alone 55% on such a substantial volume (29 3PAs.)

This is an excellent sign, as teams have already committed to doubling Zach Edey no matter what, and that will continue to result in clean looks from behind the arc and plenty of inside-out threes.

Meanwhile, Morehead State is coming off a strong season where it finished 22-12 but lost to No. 5 seeded SEMO in the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament, thus missing out on an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.

The Eagles still won’t have an answer for Zach Edey, though. Like many mid-majors, they are limited in size in the frontcourt, and the size that they do have (Dieonte Miles, 7-foot, 240 pounds) is going to get in foul trouble from defending Edey. Purdue will crush the Eagles on the glass (Purdue was first in rebounding rate last season, while Morehead State was 122nd in the nation) and run away with this one if the Boilermakers shoot even remotely well.

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AUTHOR

Andrew Norton

148 Articles

Andrew has always been an avid sports fan and followed his hoop dreams all the way to college. He’s well-versed in everything betting with multiple years of experience and is qualitatively and quantitatively knowledgeable in sports statistics and analytics.

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