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Best College Basketball Bets Today | NCAAB Picks November 27

Written by: Andrew Norton
Published November 27, 2023
11 min read
Best College Basketball Bets Today November 27

While only one AP Top 25 team (No. 5 UConn) is playing on Monday night, there are still several squads to watch, including the Wisconsin Badgers, who knocked off No. 24 Virginia one week ago and followed up with a win against SMU on Wednesday.

Take a look at our best college basketball picks today, including the New Hampshire Wildcats versus the UConn Huskies and the Western Illinois Leathernecks versus the Wisconsin Badgers games below!

New Hampshire @ No. 5 UConn

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PICK: UConn -30.5 (-110)

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4.8/5

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The reigning National Champions have picked up where they left off last season, winning everything by double-digits. As a matter of fact, the Huskies have won their past 12 games by double-digits, dating back to the beginning of the 2023 NCAA Tournament.

Despite losing their top two scorers in Jordan Hawkins, an elite movement shooter, and physical double-double machine, Adama Sanogo, the Huskies do not lack scoring, defense, or athleticism.

UConn brought in sharpshooting senior Cam Spencer, who has an astonishing shooting split of 52/49/100 through six games, and Stephon Castle, a five-star guard who will likely be a one-and-done player, as he is projected to be a lottery pick in the 2024 NBA Draft. Castle will unfortunately be out until at least the Huskies’ game on December 1st due to a knee injury.

Still, Spencer is joined in the starting lineup by Tristen Newton, Alex Karaban, and Donovan Klingan, their third, fourth, and fifth-leading scorers from last season, respectively. Newton has posted close to 15 points, eight rebounds, and seven assists this year, while Karaban is averaging 16 points and six rebounds. Clingan has also been a significant contributor, logging 13 points, six rebounds, and two blocks per game.

Further, UConn has put together the third-highest adjusted efficiency margin thus far, per KenPom, and has the tenth-highest eFG% in the nation. Can the Huskies keep their momentum rolling and destroy New Hampshire by 31 points?

Yes, they can. New Hampshire’s starting frontcourt features Jaxson Baker (6-foot-8), Clarence Daniels (6-foot-6), and Trey Woodyard (6-foot-6.) That size does not stand a chance against the Huskies’ center Donovan Clingan (7-foot-2); Karaban (6-foot-8) and Samson Johnson (6-foot-10) are also big, physical bodies who will cause issues on the glass and in the paint.

Through the first six games, UConn has ranked third in total rebounding rate in the nation, not only due to its impressive frontcourt but also because it has excellent rebounding guards like Tristen Newton. However, the Wildcats are 248th in the same category, primarily due to their lack of size and physicality.

Between Connecticut’s near-60% effective shooting as a team and its exceptional rebounding, the Huskies will win most of their games this season. And they should slaughter teams like New Hampshire in the process.

Western Illinois @ Wisconsin

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

PICK: Wisconsin -26 (-110)

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Widely projected to finish between fifth and sixth in the Big Ten, the Wisconsin Badgers have started the 2023-24 regular season off strong after being just an NIT team last year. Wisconsin reached a 20-16 record after securing three wins in the NIT, but that could hardly be considered a successful year for the Badgers.

The Badgers enter this game against the Western Illinois Leathernecks with a 4-2 record; they suffered a ten-point loss to No. 7 Tennessee and dropped an away game to Providence, a team that currently ranks 50th in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin. Those are not necessarily “bad” losses. As for wins, Wisconsin has defeated No. 24 Virginia, Arkansas State, SMU, and Robert Morris thus far.

Despite many experts keeping their expectations for the Badgers at bay ahead of this season, KenPom has them ranked 23rd in his adjusted efficiency margin metric, with a top-30 offense and defense. They crash the offensive glass (35th in offensive rebounding percentage) and rarely turn the ball over (tied-56th in turnovers per game.) However, Wisconsin does have a weakness, particularly on the offensive end: three-point shooting (29.7%.). 

Discipline and effort have kept Wisconsin’s offensive output at a respectable level, but its shooting could be concerning, depending on who you ask. However, it is not a concern for us because the Badgers have already played the nation’s first, 11th, and 17th-best defenses (per KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency margin) in three of their six games. Of course, they wouldn’t shoot at an extremely high level against them this early in the season.

Further, Chucky Hepburn, A.J. Storr, and Max Klesmit are shooting well below their season averages last year, as they combined to hit close to 40% from deep during the 2022-23 campaign. Between Hepburn, Storr, and Klesmit’s expected positive shooting regression and the shooting talent of a few other players on this Badgers team, their 3P% should improve quite a bit, especially against a team like Western Illinois.

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AUTHOR

Andrew Norton

117 Articles

Andrew has always been an avid sports fan and followed his hoop dreams all the way to college. He’s well-versed in everything betting with multiple years of experience and is qualitatively and quantitatively knowledgeable in sports statistics and analytics.

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