No. 7 Baylor vs No. 11 Texas Tech Predictions, Odds, Picks

• The Baylor Bears are 6-4 over their last ten games.
• Baylor forward Jonathan Tchamwa Tchathoua will miss the rest of the season with a left knee injury.
• The Texas Tech Red Raiders have won four of their last five games.

No. 7 Baylor Bears vs No. 11 Texas Tech Red Raiders Odds

Odds taken from DraftKings Sportsbook

No. 7 Baylor Bears vs No. 11 Texas Tech Red Raiders Predictions and Picks

The Big 12’s second and third best teams will face each other in Lubbock, Texas tonight. The Baylor Bears are having another another excellent season and beat no. 20 Texas in their last game. The Texas Tech Red Raiders are also having a great season and are coming off an 82-69 victory against unranked TCU.

Baylor is in a difficult position right now. They lost forward Jonathan Tchamwa Tchathoua in their last game for the rest of the season. Forwards Jeremy Sochan and Flo Thamba have to step up in his absence. Outside of Tchamwa Tchathoua, Baylor is led by by guard LJ Cryer, James Akinjo, Adam Flagler, and Kendall Brown. Those four players average a combined 50 points a game, almost ⅔ of Baylor’s total points

Texas Tech is having a strong season and only two games out of first place in the Big 12. Their success cannot be largely attributed to one player; they have six productive players playing 23 minutes or more a game. If this game was last week, I would give the edge to Baylor, but since Baylor is missing a key player, I will give the edge to Texas Tech. The Red Raiders have home-court advantage and a more complete roster at this moment.

Pick:

Texas Tech beats Baylor 72-69. Texas Tech covers, Over 136 points.

Why Might the Baylor Bears Win?

The Baylor Bears will have a difficult matchup in Texas Tech. If they want to secure a victory, they have to win the rebounding battle and hit free-throws.

Baylor lost a big rebounder when Jonathan Tchamwa Tchathoua went down with an injury. Tchamwa Tchathoua led Baylor with 6.8 rebounds per game. The whole Baylor roster has to make up for his absence and grab more rebounds. If they win the rebounding battle, they will likely win the game.

It is surprising that Baylor wins as much as they do with how they shoot free-throws. They only hit 68.8% of their free-throws attempts. The problem is they get to the line a lot and shoot 16.4 free-throws a game, so they are missing some opportunities. They need to shoot better from the free-throw line this game. If they can make a couple more free-throws than they normally do, they may win the game.

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Why Might the Texas Tech Red Raiders Win?

The Red Raiders have a solid opportunity to sweep Baylor this season. However, if they really want to win, they have to avoid turnovers and protect the rim.

Texas Tech turns the ball over 13.4 times per game. There is not one player who is mainly responsible for this; Instead, a handful of players are responsible for this. Texas Tech needs to make a team effort to secure the ball and not turn it over.

Baylor became a smaller team when Jonathan Tchamwa Tchathoua went down with injury. However, Baylor will still attack the hoop looking to score and/or get fouled. The Texas Tech forwards have to protect the rim and try not to foul Baylor. If they do foul Baylor, it is not the worst thing; Baylor does not shoot free-throws particularly well.

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Bears Key Player: (F) Jeremy Sochan

I never expected to pick forward Jeremy Sochan as the Bears key player, but in the absence of Jonathan Tchamwa Tchathoua, Sochan’s has become a much more vital piece to the Bears.

You could argue that Sochan is more productive than Tchamwa Tchathoua. He scores almost the same amount of points, plays a little more, gets only one less rebound per game, and is a little better passer. Tchamwa Tchathoua was a significantly better shooter, but other than that, they are about the same.

Sochan needs to step up in Tchamwa Tchathoua’s absence. The 6’9” freshman from England has a solid opportunity to thrive in extended minutes. Sochan will be a key player for the Bears for the rest of the season.

Red Raiders Key Player: (F) Bryson Williams

Forward Bryson Williams is a very talented shooter. He is avareging 13.4 points per game on 53.3% field-goal shooting and 45.8% three-point shooting. He is not as good of a free-throw shooter, as he only hits 76.2 of his free-throw attempts.

Williams is the Red Raiders key player because he is such an efficient shooter. He also grabs 4.5 rebounds per game and does not turn the ball over too much. Williams is not a defensive star but he makes up for with his play on offense.

How to Watch No. 7 Baylor Bears vs No. 11 Texas Tech Red Raiders