Texas vs Miami Prediction, Picks & Odds NCAA Tournament

The Elite 8 is here, and that means Miami and Texas are one win away from the Final Four. The fifth-seeded Hurricanes and second-ranked Longhorns will battle to keep their National Championship dreams alive. Both teams enter the round with a ton of momentum after dominant wins in the Sweet 16. However, only one will prevail on Sunday in Kansas City.

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#5 Miami Preview

The Miami Hurricanes could be the hottest team remaining in the NCAA Tournament. The Hurricanes left no doubt when they beat Houston 89-75 in the Sweet 16 to punch their ticket to the Elite 8. Miami’s multitude of ball handlers combatted the Cougars' intense defense, and they hit their shots. It was a very simple game plan that was executed to perfection. 

Nijel Pack was sensational for the Hurricanes, scoring 26 points while shooting 67% from the field. He was one of many Miami players who contributed to the effective defense against Marcus Sasser and company. Houston made runs throughout the game, but there weren’t many moments when the future result of this game was in question.
Miami’s offense has been consistent this season, but their defense has been lackluster. Although, they have Final Four upside, and we witnessed this in the Sweet 16. Look for their intense play in the backcourt to continue. 

Key Players & Key Stats

Pack took over Miami’s Sweet 16 contest, but he wasn’t the program’s best player in 2022-23. The Hurricanes are in their second Elite 8 in program history because of Isaiah Wong. The guard leads the team in points (16.3) and assists (3.3) per game. He scored 27 points in the second round before dropping 20 versus Houston to advance to the Elite 8. 

Miami is the 39th overall team in the KenPom rating. They’re an offensive juggernaut, ranking 12th in the country. Yet, they’re 132nd in defense. There hasn’t been a National Champion since 2002 with a defense not inside KenPom’s top 40, so this could be an issue against a physical Texas team.

Tournament Path

The Hurricanes drew the fifth seed in the Midwest Region of the bracket. They started the tournament off with a victory over #12 Drake. This game was closer than expected, but Miami came through down the stretch. The Hurricanes then dominated #4 Indiana and #1 Houston to reach the Elite 8. 

#2 Texas Preview

Texas has the highest probability of winning the NCAA Tournament amongst the remaining teams, according to ESPN Analytics. The outlet gives the Longhorns a 31% chance to hoist the trophy. The next closest is UConn at 22%, so Texas is the best team remaining on paper. 

The Longhorns dominated the Xavier Musketeers on their path to the Elite 8. They outscored Xavier 42-25 in the first half, which set the tone for the remainder of the contest. Tyrese Hunter stepped up for the Longhorns, scoring 19 points. The sophomore has been solid this season, but he was averaging 10 points per game. If they can receive this production moving forward, Texas will likely cruise to the National Championship.

Texas is the fifth-ranked team in the country, according to KenPom. Texas is well-rounded on offense and defense, and they don’t have many weaknesses. Miami must be perfect to pull off the upset on Sunday. 

Key Players & Key Stats

Marcus Carr has been the most consistent Longhorn this season. He is a do-all player that contributes in multiple areas. When he has the hot hand, the guard isn’t afraid to take shots all over the floor. Carr is averaging 15.8 points per game but also leads the team in assists with 4.1 per game. 

Carr is also relentless on defense, averaging under two assists per game. He sets the tone, and Timmy Allen follows suit. The 6’6” forward has been battling injuries but leads the team in rebounds with 5.6 per game. Texas has been able to win with multiple stars, so look for the entire roster to contribute in the Sweet 16. 

Tournament Path

Texas entered March Madness as the second seed in the Midwest Region. They beat Colgate by 20 points before surviving Penn State in the second round to advance to the Sweet 16. Their dominant victory over the Musketeers gave them a date against the Hurricanes in the Sweet 16. 

Odds, Previews, Picks, Best Bets for NCAA Tournament Elite 8 #2 Texas vs #5 Miami

The public, models, and projections all love Texas in this position. The Longhorns fit the KenPom narrative as they have an elite offense and defense. They also play in the best conference in the country, so they’re battle-tested. The same cannot be said about Miami.

The Hurricanes beat a talented Houston, but the Cougars aren’t efficient on offense. They win by playing defense, and since Miami made contested shots, they were able to advance to the Elite 8. Texas’ balance should give Miami trouble on Sunday. This isn’t to say the Hurricanes cannot punch their ticket to the Final Four, but they must be flawless. We don’t see this happening on Sunday against the Longhorns.

Texas should be able to apply pressure on Miami’s multitude of ball handlers. If the Hurricanes hit contested shots as they did in the Sweet 16, this game could be close. However, we expect the Longhorns to wear down the Hurricanes in the paint. Texas' physical style of offense isn’t going to make winning conducive for Miami. 

When Allen establishes his presence in the paint, it will draw a lot of attention. This will open up Texas for success on the perimeter with its array of shooters. Lay the points with the Hurricanes.

Miami ATS Record: 21-14

Texas ATS Record: 19-18

BetMGM Sportsbook

PICK: Texas -4

Texas vs Miami How to Watch

Location: T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, MO

Game Time & Date: MAR. 26 @ 5:05 p.m ET

TV Network: CBS

Streaming: March Madness Live App

Big 12 & ACC in the NCAA Tournament

Big 12

Texas: 3-0

Kansas State: 3-0 

Baylor 1-1

TCU: 1-1

Kansas: 1-1

Iowa State: 0-1

West Virginia: 0-1

ACC

Miami: 3-0

Pittsburgh: 1-1

Duke: 1-1

NC State: 0-1

Virginia: 0-1