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NFL Prop Bets Week 1: Best NFL Player Props

Written by: Richard Janvrin
Published September 6, 2023
13 min read
Best NFL Prop Bets Week 1

The 2023-24 NFL season is finally here, and it’s time to start making our first bets of the regular season.

Here, we’ll be focusing on NFL prop bets, and below, we have the three best values on the board for Week 1. 

Let’s start making some money this NFL season

Kansas City Chiefs vs Detroit Lions

Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 Passing TDs (+100) at DraftKings

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Kicking off the NFL regular season is the Chiefs hosting the Lions. The Chiefs will have their Super Bowl banner hung, and this is shaping up to be an excellent first game of the season between two high-powered offenses.

Last year, the Lions allowed more than 250 passing yards and 1.5 touchdown passes per game. 

Defensively, they’ve added Jack Campbell to the linebacking group and have Cam Sutton, Emmanuel Moseley, and C.J. Gardner-Johnson in the secondary. 

The defense should be improved this season, but this game will feature a lot of offense.

Getting “+” value even at +100 for a Mahomes “over” on passing touchdowns is one the safer NFL prop bets. Take it, and don’t look back. 

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New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills

Pick: Garrett Wilson Any Time TD (+135) at FanDuel

The first Monday Night Football game of the year is between the Aaron Rodgers-led New York Jets and Buffalo Bills, who are coming off a tough loss in the postseason to the Cincinnati Bengals. 

Here, we will look at the connection between Rodgers and his new No. 1 receiver, reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year, Garrett Wilson. 

We’ve seen plenty of highlight reels from practice and even in Rodgers’ brief postseason action between these two, and they get to put it on display on Monday Night Football. 

In this one, Wilson will see plenty of Tre’Davious White and Kaiir Elam. White is a player that you used to instill fear into opposing offenses, but that hasn’t been the case so much lately.

This preseason, White played only 24 coverage snaps, but according to PFF, they could’ve gone better. 

Last year, White returned in Week 12 and also played fairly average. Elam was a first-round player by the Bills in 2022, but like it is for any rookie corner, it could’ve been a much better season for him. 

Here, look for Rodgers to demonstrate that Wilson is his No. 1 guy, funnel him targets, and get him in the end zone. 

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Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals 

Pick: Joe Mixon Any Time TD (+110) at Caesars 

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Joe Mixon had a rough offseason. At multiple points, it appeared that the allegations against him could’ve resulted in him getting cut from the Bengals. However, Mixon was found not guilty, and everything appears on track for him to play this season and be the workhorse for the Bengals.

Against the Browns, for whatever reason, quarterback Joe Burrow, who’s also dealing with injury, has struggled. He’s just 1-4 against them. 

The Browns allowed 135 rushing yards and 1.3 touchdowns per game last season. 

They did add Dalvin Tomlinson to sit in the middle of the defensive line, which certainly makes things harder for opposing runners, but expect the Bengals and Burrow to lean on Mixon more here as he continues to recover.

Getting “+” line value, a Mixon Any Time Touchdown prop feels extremely safe. 

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Richard Janvrin

567 Articles

After graduating from the University of New Hampshire with a BA in Journalism, Richard Janvrin has been covering iGaming and sports betting since December 2018. Richard has covered betting at Bleacher Report, Gambling.com, The Game Day, Forbes, and more.

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