Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons Week 18: A Chance for Bucs to Tune Up for Their Upcoming Postseason Run

• Tampa Bay Bucs just clinched the NFC South by beating the Carolina Panthers, 30-24

• The 6-10 Atlanta Falcons are coming off a win but are eliminated from the playoffs

• Watch Buccaneers vs Falcons live on Sunday, Jan. 8, 2023, at 1:00 PM ET on FOX

Buccaneers vs Falcons Week 17 Odds

Buccaneers vs Falcons Week 17 Picks

POINT SPREAD: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.0 (-110) at Caesars

POINTS TOTAL: Under 40.5 (-110) at BetMGM

SPECIAL: 1st Field Goal - on or after 13:00 Elapsed – No (-110) at DraftKings

POINT SPREAD: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.0 (-110) at Caesars

This thrilling NFL Week 18 NFC South matchup features the playoff-bound Tampa Bay Buccaneers facing the eliminated Atlanta Falcons, a chance for QB Tom Brady’s Bucs to tune up for their upcoming postseason run while the Falcons players get another chance to prove why they are NFL worthy including multiple rookie starters, a divisional battle worth watching.  

The Falcons are a young team with talented rookie playmakers including QB Desmond Ridder, WR Drake London, and RB Tyler Allgeier, all signs of a hopeful future but for now, Atlanta has failed to cover the spread in each of their last five games in January according to the oddsmakers, an indication to take the Bucs to cover here, our choice, especially giving the GOAT some extra points to play with.

Another fun fact from the NFL history books - the Tampa Bay Bucs have won six of their last seven games against the Atlanta Falcons – so it would seem they have their number, and because Atlanta has been eliminated from the playoffs, don’t expect there to be a huge crowd of Falcons fans to distract Tampa Bay’s offense the way it might happen earlier in the season.

POINTS TOTAL: Under 40.5 (-110) at BetMGM 

According to the sportsbooks, seven of the Falcons' last eight games have gone under the total points line but we like the over since this bet is only listed at 40.5 total points, a low number for this late in the season at a location where winter weather will not be a factor.

Here is how the scoring tendencies of each of these teams breaks down – the Buccaneers' offense game planned by OC Byron Leftwich averages 18.5 points per game, while the Falcons' offense master-minded by OC Dave Ragone averages 20.9 points every week, that total of 39.4 points an indicator that the under might be a decent bet.

It could be a defensive game, however, so consider that the Bucs' defense has allowed 20.5 points per game while the Falcons' defense lets the teams it play score 23.1 points each game, that total of 43.6 clearly over what this bet allows, and more than what these offenses typically deliver.

Since this game means nothing to the Tampa Bay Bucs in terms of playoff contention or even seeding, don’t be shocked if HC Todd Bowles decides to rest a few of his starters, especially the ones who are nursing injuries like CB Carlton Davis (shoulder) and LB Carl Nassib (pectoral) who are both listed as questionable to play, so be sure to check back before game time for the starters.

SPECIAL: 1st Field Goal - on or after 13:00 Elapsed – No (-110) at DraftKings

This Week 18 Special from DraftKings looks fun – it is a simple bet, the gambler must guess whether the first field goal of the game will be kicked at 13:00 minutes or later in the first quarter, with a no bet a guess that it will happen sooner than that or not at all, a way to add a quick thrill to the first part of this game that doesn’t have any direct playoff implications, only the potential for game film.  

Last week, QB Tom Brady and WR Mike Evans reconnected after seeming off for much of the first part of the season, the two pairing for 3 TDs on perfectly thrown and expertly caught long balls that had Bucs fans setting off their own celebratory cannons, a tough matchup for the Falcons secondary starring CBs A.J. Terrell and Darren Hall and safeties Richie Grant and Jaylin Hawkins.

The Buccaneers offensive line is suffering from some major injuries to the starting five, so it is a next-man-up situation protecting the GOAT QB Brady who was sacked three times last week, a nice challenge for the Falcons defensive front including DE Abdullah Anderson and NTs Grady Jarrett and rookie Timmy Horne, a group with the second lowest number of team sacks (21) in the league.

How to Watch Buccaneers vs Falcons

• What: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons

• Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA

• When: Sunday, January 8, 2023, at 1:00 PM ET

• How: FOX