Most NFL Passing Touchdowns in 2019: Top-Fifteen Odds and Predictions

Oddsmakers have now released their odds and predictions on which NFL quarterback will throw for the most touchdowns during the 2019 regular season.

Last year, a second-year man ran away with the honors, and this season he’s predicted to do the same, though that kid from Kansas City will have to overcome some strong competition from Luck and few other challengers.

Here we take a look at the top-fifteen quarterback candidates for throwing the most NFL touchdown passes in 2019 as well as list their 2018 stats lines and share some analysis on the odds and predictions of each of these top-tier athletes.

Here are the current top-fifteen odds and predictions listed for which NFL quarterback will have the most passing touchdowns in 2019:

If you live in New Jersey and want to bet on futures in NFL you can do so on 888sport. Check out the latest odds here.

Good luck!

15) Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings

SportsbookMost Passing TouchdownsLink
888Sport NJ+3300

* 21+ | NJ only | If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER

Age: 30     

Years in the NFL: 7

Height: 6-foot-3

Weight: 202-pounds

Number of games played in 2018: 16

2018 Passing Stats Line: Completed 425-of-606 for 4,298 yards and 30 touchdowns with 10 interceptions and a completion percentage of 70.1 while being sacked 40 times.

Analysis: Last season was Kirk Cousins’ first with the Minnesota Vikings, but despite having a statistically good year, he was not able to get his team to the postseason.

The Vikings’ top targets remain the same – receivers Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs, tight end Kyle Rudolph and running back Dalvin Cook – a passing offense that ranked 13th last season after averaging 252.2 yards through the air per game.

Cousins’ threw for 30 touchdowns last season, good enough for ninth most in the league, but that is still 20 total touchdowns less than last year’s winner threw.

14) Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

SportsbookMost Passing TouchdownsLink
888Sport NJ+1600

* 21+ | NJ only | If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER

Age: 25         

Years in the NFL: 4

Height: 6-foot-4

Weight: 231-pounds

Number of games played in 2018: 11

2018 Passing Stats Line: Completed 244-of-378 for 2,992 yards and 19 touchdowns with 14 interceptions and a completion percentage of 64.6 while being sacked 27 times.

Analysis: Unlike with last season, in 2019 Jameis Winston will not have to miss the first three games due to suspension and won’t have to compete with FitzMagic (Ryan Fitzpatrick) all year long for regular season snaps.

Winston lost one of his favorite targets, Adam Humphries, to free agency, and the other, Desean Jackson, to a trade, but luckily for him the Bucs picked up a real unknown gem from the Cleveland Browns, Breshad Perriman.

Receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and tight end O.J. Howard remain, but for Winston to make a serious run at most passing touchdowns in 2019, new head coach Bruce Arians and his newly hired offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich will have to figure out how to unlock Jameis’ former potential.  

13) Tom Brady, New England Patriots

SportsbookMost Passing TouchdownsLink
888Sport NJ+1600

* 21+ | NJ only | If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER

Age: 41         

Years in the NFL: 19

Height: 6-foot-4

Weight: 225-pounds

Number of games played in 2018: 16

2018 Passing Stats Line: Completed 375-of-570 for 4,355 yards and 29 touchdowns with 11 interceptions and a completion percentage of 65.8 while being sacked 21 times.

Analysis: Hard to believe GOAT quarterback Tom Brady isn’t in the top ten of this list, but the old man has never been about individual accolades.

Brady’s 29 touchdowns last season put him in the top ten of that category, and expect him to put up similar or better numbers now that alongside Super Bowl MVP slot receiver Julian Edelman he’s also targeting veteran Demaryius Thomas, an offseason free agent signing who has caught for +1000 yards more often than not in each of his eight NFL seasons.

Add to that target mix first round draft pick N’Keal Harry, the Arizona State standout, and once again Brady has everything he needs to be effective.

12) Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams

SportsbookMost Passing TouchdownsLink
888Sport NJ+1400

* 21+ | NJ only | If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER

Age: 24           

Years in the NFL: 3

Height: 6-foot-4

Weight: 222-pounds

Number of games played in 2018: 16

2018 Passing Stats Line: Completed 364-of-561 for 4,688 yards and 32 touchdowns with 12 interceptions and a completion percentage of 64.9 while being sacked 33 times.

Analysis: Jared Goff took his Los Angeles Rams to the Super Bowl in his third NFL season, so this young athlete is certainly special.

A big part of his and the team’s success comes from the game planning (and audible calling) of head coach Sean McVay, who basically outsmarted everyone last season except Patriots general manager and head coach Bill Belichick.

The Rams are holding steady with last years’ receiving corps, only now with a healthy Cooper Kupp returning to the roster and with running back Todd Gurley getting more consistent rest, Goff could easily throw enough touchdowns in 2019 to make a run for the top slot.

11) Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans

SportsbookMost Passing TouchdownsLink
888Sport NJ+1600

* 21+ | NJ only | If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER

Age: 23        

Years in the NFL: 2

Height: 6-foot-2

Weight: 220-pounds

Number of games played in 2018: 16

2018 Passing Stats Line: Completed 345-of-505 for 4,165 yards and 26 touchdowns with 9 interceptions and a completion percentage of 68.3 while being sacked 62 times.

Analysis: General manager Brian Gaine signed left tackle Matt Kalil this offseason to keep Deshaun Watson safer than he was last season when he was sacked a league-leading 62 times.

With a bit more time to throw, Watson might be able to take even more advantage of having one of the league’s best wide receivers to throw to, First-team All-Pro DeAndre Hopkins, who last season caught for 1,500+ yards and 11 touchdowns.

The key to Watson’s success in 2019 will be staying healthy, something he was able to do in his sophomore season last year despite being on the ground so often.

10) Philip Rivers, Los Angeles Chargers

SportsbookMost Passing TouchdownsLink
888Sport NJ+1600

* 21+ | NJ only | If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER

Age: 37         

Years in the NFL: 15

Height: 6-foot-5

Weight: 228-pounds

Number of games played in 2018: 16

2018 Passing Stats Line: Completed 347-of-508 for 4,308 yards and 32 touchdowns with 12 interceptions and a completion percentage of 68.3 while being sacked 32 times.

Analysis: Despite his advanced age and odd-looking throwing motion, veteran quarterback Philip Rivers is extremely effective, throwing for 28+ touchdowns and 4,200+ yards in his last six seasons.

Rivers has one of the league’s top receivers to throw at, Keenan Allen, who last year caught 97 balls for almost 1,200 yards and six touchdowns.

The most touchdowns Rivers has ever thrown in one season is 34, though, so for him to take a run at this award, he’ll have to have the season of his career, which, by the way, he is due for.

9) Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles

SportsbookMost Passing TouchdownsLink
888Sport NJ+1400

* 21+ | NJ only | If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER

Age: 26               

Years in the NFL: 3

Height: 6-foot-5

Weight: 237-pounds

Number of games played in 2018: 11

2018 Passing Stats Line: Completed 279-of-401 for 3,074 yards and 21 touchdowns with 7 interceptions and a completion percentage of 69.6 while being sacked 31 times.

Analysis: The biggest enemy of Carson Wentz has been the injury bug, which kept him out of the postseason for the last two seasons in a row.

Now that Wentz no longer has his Super Bowl MVP backup to count on, he’ll have to prove to Eagles fans that he can go the distance and stay healthy.

It won’t hurt that Wentz now has veteran receiver Desean Jackson to throw to along with staples from last season, Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor, but Wentz’s biggest and best target remains tight end Zach Ertz, arguably the top tight end in the league now that Gronk has retired.

8) Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns

SportsbookMost Passing TouchdownsLink
888Sport NJ+1400

* 21+ | NJ only | If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER

Age: 24          

Years in the NFL: 1

Height: 6-foot-1

Weight: 215-pounds

Number of games played in 2018: 14

2018 Passing Stats Line: Completed 310-of-486 for 3,725 yards and 27 touchdowns with 14 interceptions and a completion percentage of 63.8 while being sacked 25 times.

Analysis: Though it will only be Baker Mayfield’s second season, 2019 looks to be a highly productive one for several reasons, the top one being the addition of elite receiver Odell Beckham Jr. to the Cleveland Browns’ roster.

Then add in receiver Jarvis Landry and tight end David Njoku plus catching running backs Duke Johnson and (for the final eight games) Kareem Hunt and it looks real good for the incredibly accurate Mayfield.

The big challenge will be facing teams who have now had time to study film on Mayfield, though expect plenty of offensive surprises under new head coach Freddie Kitchens and new offensive coordinator Todd Monken.

7) Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints

SportsbookMost Passing TouchdownsLink
888Sport NJ+1400

* 21+ | NJ only | If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER

Age: 40          

Years in the NFL: 18

Height: 6-foot-0

Weight: 209-pounds

Number of games played in 2018: 15

2018 Passing Stats Line: Completed 364-of-489 for 3,992 yards and 32 touchdowns with 5 interceptions and a completion percentage of 74.4 while being sacked 17 times.

Analysis: Despite being undersized and over aged, Drew Brees is one of the most productive NFL quarterbacks playing today.

Ranked 32nd in total interceptions last season, there really is no more accurate a starting thrower as Brees, whose completion percentage of 74.4 was the best among active quarterbacks in 2018.

Of course, Brees has one of the best receivers in the league, Michael Thomas, to throw to along with a soft-handed running back in Alvin Kamara, and now with newly signed tight end Jared Cook as a target, expect Brees to finish high in the passing touchdown category.

6) Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks

SportsbookMost Passing TouchdownsLink
888Sport NJ+1200

* 21+ | NJ only | If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER

Age: 30           

Years in the NFL: 7

Height: 5-foot-11

Weight: 215-pounds

Number of games played in 2018: 16

2018 Passing Stats Line: Completed 280-of-427 for 3,448 yards and 35 touchdowns with 7 interceptions and a completion percentage of 65.6 while being sacked 51 times.

Analysis: To keep Russell Wilson safer this season, general manager John Schneider signed left guard Mike Iupati in the offseason to give some blind side help to Second-team All-Pro left tackle Duane Brown.

Despite being tied for the third most sacks in the NFL last season, Wilson also found a way to tie for the third most passing touchdowns, 35.

With his same main targets still on the roster (Tyler Lockett, Doug Baldwin and David Moore) but with improved protection, expect Wilson to do as well or better in 2019.

5) Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers

SportsbookMost Passing TouchdownsLink
888Sport NJ+1200

* 21+ | NJ only | If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER

Age: 37           

Years in the NFL: 15

Height: 6-foot-5

Weight: 240-pounds

Number of games played in 2018: 16

2018 Passing Stats Line: Completed 452-of-675 for 5,129 yards and 34 touchdowns with 16 interceptions and a completion percentage of 67.0 while being sacked 24 times.

Analysis: Nobody had more passing yards than Ben Roethlisberger last season, but of course that was with the help of one of the NFL’s top receivers, Antonio Brown, who is suiting up for another franchise in 2019.

His absence puts more pressure on receiver Juju Smith-Schuster, who last year benefited from all the defensive attention Brown’s presence received and who will most likely be the main focus now, even with newly signed receiver Donte Moncrief onboard.

In 2019, Roethlisberger has to prove he’s still in it to win it and worth the two-year, $68 million contract extension he just received, so expect him to put up big numbers this season, as usual.

4) Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

SportsbookMost Passing TouchdownsLink
888Sport NJ+700

* 21+ | NJ only | If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER

Age: 35          

Years in the NFL: 14

Height: 6-foot-2

Weight: 225-pounds

Number of games played in 2018: 16

2018 Passing Stats Line: Completed 372-of-597 for 4,442 yards and 25 touchdowns with 2 interceptions and a completion percentage of 62.3 while being sacked 49 times.

Analysis: Health has become a big factor for veteran quarterback Aaron Rodgers, the former All-Pro Super Bowl champion, MVP, league MVP and Pro Bowler becoming less agile out of the pocket as he gets a bit older.

That’s not to say that Rodgers is no longer effective – he’s still one of the top performers under center, last year ranking sixth among his peers for his production.

Last season Rodgers’ offense was ranked 12th and since very few offseason changes to the offensive roster were made, expect much of the same in Green Bay unless the ‘old man’ can stay healthy enough to avoid hits and throw for even more scores.

3) Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons

SportsbookMost Passing TouchdownsLink
888Sport NJ+600

* 21+ | NJ only | If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER

Age: 34          

Years in the NFL: 11

Height: 6-foot-4

Weight: 217-pounds

Number of games played in 2018: 16

2018 Passing Stats Line: Completed 422-of-608 for 4,924 yards and 35 touchdowns with 7 interceptions and a completion percentage of 69.4 while being sacked 42 times.

Analysis: Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan should be a whole lot safer in the backfield this season than he was in 2018 when he was sacked 42 times, tied for eighth most in the NFL.

That’s all thanks to a rebuilt offensive line, mainly newly signed guard James Carpenter and newly drafted guard Chris Lindstrom and the other first rounder, right tackle Kaleb McGary.

Injuries to seven starters took the Atlanta Falcons out of the running last season, so expect Ryan and his crew to come out swinging, and throwing, in particular to Second-team All-Pro Julio Jones and All-Rookie Calvin Ridley, who were major part of a 4th ranked passing attack in 2018.

2) Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts

SportsbookMost Passing TouchdownsLink
888Sport NJ+450

* 21+ | NJ only | If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER

Age: 29      

Years in the NFL: 6

Height: 6-foot-4

Weight: 240-pounds

Number of games played in 2018: 16

2018 Passing Stats Line: Completed 430-of-639 for 4,593 yards and 39 touchdowns with 15 interceptions and a completion percentage of 67.3 while being sacked 18 times.

Analysis: It took a miracle season by Patrick Mahomes to outscore Indianapolis Colts’ Andrew Luck and company through the air in 2018, and it looks like Luck is ready to bring it again.

This season Luck not only has the speedy T.Y. Hilton to throw to again, he now also has Devin Funchess, signed in March after his moderately productive 14 games for the Carolina Panthers last year in which he caught 44 balls for 549 yards and 4 touchdowns.

Many experts are picking the Colts to be one of the main AFC teams to beat in 2019, so it’s no stretch to expect a healthy Luck to put up some impressive numbers once again.

1) Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

SportsbookMost Passing TouchdownsLink
888Sport NJ+350

* 21+ | NJ only | If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER

Age: 23     

Years in the NFL: 2

Height: 6-foot-3

Weight: 230-pounds

Number of games played in 2018: 15

2018 Passing Stats Line: Completed 383-of-580 for 5,097 yards and 50 touchdowns with 12 interceptions and a completion percentage of 66.0 while being sacked 26 times.

Analysis: For one hot moment, it looked like Patrick Mahomes and his Kansas City Chiefs were going to have to play the 2019 season without star receiver Tyreek Hill, but now it appears Hill’s off the field behavior (most likely) won’t keep him from playing.

Hill caught 12 of Mahomes’ 50 touchdown passes while second wide receiver Sammy Watkins only caught 3, so clearly Hill’s absence would have been noticed in Kansas City.

The Chiefs also still have their other main offensive weapon, tight end Travis Kelce, whose receiving yards (1,336) and touchdowns (10) put him right at the top of his position last season, so given all that, Mahomes and his incredible throwing arm(s) plus his uncanny Spidey Senses becomes the odds-on favorite to throw for the most passing touchdowns in 2019.