Green Bay Packers just beat the Rams with the defense posting an INT & 5 sacks
Miami Dolphins have won 11 of their last 12 games at home in Hard Rock Stadium
Watch Packers vs Dolphins live on Sunday, Dec. 25, 2022, at 1:00 PM ET on FOX
POINT SPREAD: Green Bay Packers +4.5 (-110) at BetMGM
POINTS TOTAL: Under 49.5 (-110) at Caesars
SPECIAL: 1st Drive - FG Made – No (-800) at DraftKings
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This NFL Week 16 inter-conference battle is the first of three Christmas Day games and pits the on-the-bubble NFC Green Bay Packers against the potential AFC 7th seed Miami Dolphins, with QB Aaron Rodgers’ 6-8 Packers needing to win out the season to keep their playoff hopes alive and QB Tua Tagovailoa’s 8-6 Dolphins on their second three-game losing streak of the season.
Here’s a fact from the sportsbooks that’s tough to swallow if you’re a Miami fan - the Dolphins have not covered the spread in each of their last four games against NFC opponents. Still, on the other hand, they have won 11 of their last 12 games at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, that home-field advantage complete with crowd noise and a Florida sun-covered visitor’s bench.
The key to a Packers Week 16 victory against Miami will be for their secondary – CBs Jaire Alexander and Rasul Douglas plus safeties Adrian Amos and Rudy Ford – to somehow neutralize the Dolphins’ speedy receivers – Jaylon Waddle and Tyreek Hill – while keeping Miami slot man Jarvis Landry from dominating midfield. This matchup will make or break Tua’s offense.
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The Green Bay Packers offense looks off this season and its leader, future Hall of Fame QB Aaron Rodgers, who is typically top-5 of better at his position, is ranked just 13th in production among NFL QBs this season, his ten interceptions this year already the third highest pick total of his career, his offense ranked 20th in scoring versus Miami who is the 9th highest scoring team.
The sportsbooks say that four of the Green Bay Packers' last five games have gone over the total points line so let’s check out the scoring tendencies of both teams combined, with their offenses combining for an average of 45.1 points per week and their defenses combining to allow 47 points per week, two signs that the under is the better wager here in Week 16.
The only injured player listed as questionable to play on the Packers side is OT David Bakhtiari (appendix), QB Rodgers’ key blindside blocker who has his back and will be missed if he fails to suit up, whereas the Dolphins have seven dinged up players who will be game-time coach’s decisions, including three on defense – LB Jerome Baker (ankle), CB Keion Crossen (knee), and FS Eric Rowe (hamstring).
Here’s an exciting Special Bet from DraftKings for any sports bettors looking for a team-neutral wager to place, this wager requiring gamblers to guess whether the first drive of a game will include a field goal made, with a $100 bet that it will happen yielding a $450 payout if it does (plus your original investment), or an $800 bet that it won’t will win you $100 plus your initial bet.
The Packers have fielded PK Mason Crosby since the 2007 season when he attempted the most field goals in the league (39) as a rookie, this season having made sixteen of the nineteen field goals he attempted (84.3%), his longest a 48 yarder, a dependable scorer who has the experience and confidence to make the tougher kicks, his career longest a 58-yarder in 2011.
The Dolphins have a young kicker, Jason Sanders, a New Mexico product who was drafted in the seventh round of the 2018 NFL Draft (229th overall), now in his fifth season as the starting placekicker for Miami, so far having made 21 field goals out of the 25 he attempted in 2022 (84%), his longest a 55-yarder, a former All-Pro who is developing a reputation as a dependable option.
What: Green Bay Packers vs Miami Dolphins
Where: Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL
When: Sunday, December 25, 2022, at 1:00 PM ET
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