Sunday Night Football in Week 9 features the Kansas City Chiefs and the Tennessee Titans. The Titans are coming off a game where Derrick Henry ran for over 200 yards and two touchdowns, but the team is nearly two-touchdown underdogs.
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Can the Titans cover the spread or win outright? Let’s examine.
The Titans beat up on the Houston Texans last week with Malik Willis at quarterback. This week they get Ryan Tannehill back (potentially) with Derrick Henry playing his best football.
Even with Tannehill back in the lineup, the receivers on the Titans don’t catch touchdowns (one all year).
The Titans are 5-3 against the spread this year, and a big part of that is due to spreads that seem to be over-accounting for their lack of a passing threat when it comes to touchdowns.
However, a run-based offense centered around Henry, who can and has single-handedly carried the team, could lead to longer possessions which are positive when accounting for such a massive spread.
The Chiefs should win the game, but there may not be as much time for the Chiefs to pulverize them, and the Titans will score in this one, averaging 21 points over their last five games.
Getting 12.5, this is far too many points.
Typically, with a team that is more based around running the ball, you’ll want to account for under more, but the Titans are an exception.
Henry is the type of player you know is coming at you, but you still can’t stop him. He’s averaging 30 carries a game over the last three weeks, has gone for over 100 in all of them (219 last week), and has four touchdowns.
As mentioned, the Titans are averaging 21 points over their last five games. While the Chiefs are 12.5-point favorites, it’s hard to imagine that the Titans will ever be down by so much that running the ball isn’t a valid option.
The Chiefs win this one 27-20.
Adding this 19.5-point total prop at +155 is an excellent value. As mentioned, despite the lack of touchdowns from wide receivers, the Titans are averaging over 20 points per game.
It’s hard to pinpoint any success from their receivers in this one, but again, it’s all on Henry.
Tannehill has a chance to get back in the lineup, so he should be able to help move the offense along with his 65.1% completion rate.
At the very least, the Titans should get enough production out of Henry to move the ball and get within striking distance of a field goal. Tannehill is a talented enough passer and can convert some third downs, especially against a more stacked box to prevent Henry from going wild. If Mailk Willis starts, he can utilize his legs.
Don’t sleep on the Titans.
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After graduating from the University of New Hampshire with a BA in Journalism, Richard Janvrin has been covering iGaming and sports betting since December 2018. Richard has covered betting at Bleacher Report, Gambling.com, The Game Day, Forbes, and more.More info on Richard Janvrin
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