Stroud (second) and Williams (first) were top QB picks in the last two drafts
The Bears covered without scoring an offensive touchdown last week
The primetime under hit more than 60 percent of the time over the last five season
C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans will welcome Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears into town on Sunday Night Football in NFL Week 2.
Both teams are off to 1-0 starts, though they went about their business in very different ways. The Texans gained 417 yards of total offense, while Chicago only managed 148 but scored two touchdowns on defense and special teams.
Here, we will go over the odds and share our best Texans vs. Bears betting picks for Sunday Night Football.
All odds below come from FanDuel Sportsbook. FanDuel customers can get $200 in bonus bets with a $5 bet on the Lions vs. Rams showdown.
The Bears won seven games despite enduring some of the worst quarterback play in the league last year. They got off to a similar start in Week 1 as they rallied from 17-0 down against the Tennessee Titans despite failing to score an offensive touchdown.
Caleb Williams is a generational QB talent and has plenty of playmakers at his disposal. With Chicago’s defense playing the way it did in Week 1 and how it has ever since it got Montez Sweat, they should present enough of a challenge to stay within a full touchdown of their opponent.
The Texans did not cover in Week 1 and were only 10-9 ATS last year despite their unexpected success. Teams ran two-high shells 60 percent of the time during Week 1, which severely limits offenses’ explosiveness and will hinder Houston’s preferred approach.
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The under is a moneymaker in primetime. The side went 149-99-4 (60.1%) in primetime matchups over the last five seasons and is 2-2 (50 percent) in the young season. One of those hits came in last Sunday Night Football’s showdown between the Los Angeles Rams and the Detroit Lions.
It’s unlikely that Williams throws for 93 yards the way he did in Week 1, but he’s still a rookie making his second professional start. It’s unreasonable to expect him to rebound in such a way that the Bears single-handedly drag this game to the over.
The Texans might have a prolific offense, but the Bears have done a great job limiting their opponents dating back to the second half of last season.
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Allen led the Bears in targets in Week 1 with 11, three more than number-one receiver D.J. Moore. Rookie Rome Odunze was also given just four targets, and nobody else on the Bears’ roster fetched more than two.
With Allen already emerging as a potential favorite target of Williams’, his reputation as a red zone threat makes the value on this line too good to ignore. The 32-year-old is a great route runner and has a reliable pair of hands the Bears could look to near the pylons, especially since running back D’Andre Swift isn’t known as a true goal-line back.
The Texans are going to score and will put pressure on the Bears to do the same. We expect a much better game from Williams, which means one of Chicago’s receivers is likely to have a strong game.
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Mixon ran the ball a whopping 30 times for 159 yards and a touchdown in the Texans’ 29-27 win over the Indianapolis Colts. His arrival in Houston not only gives them the type of back they lacked during their successful 2023 campaign, but it also gives him the opportunity to run against defenses that can’t stack the box due to Stroud’s downfield passing ability.
The Bears did not do a good job stopping the run last week. Tony Pollard carried the ball 16 times for 82 yards and a TD as the Titans rumbled for 140 yards on 26 carries (5.4 yards per carry).
It’s probably that Chicago prioritizes stopping the Texans’ passing game to make sure that Williams doesn’t have to go throw-for-throw with Stroud. That could open up lots of underneath and running opportunities, just like the rest of the league saw in Week 1.
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