Ravens vs. Dolphins Prop Bets TNF Week 9: Lamar Jackson on Track to Make His Return From Injury

• Lamar Jackson has been out with an injury since late September

• Derrick Henry rushed for two touchdowns in last week’s contest against Chicago

• The Miami Dolphins defense ranks near dead last in Def DVOA and in EPA

After suffering an injury in late September against Kansas City, Lamar Jackson is expected to make his long-awaited return to the field in an AFC conference matchup against Miami on Thursday night. Jackson will be in a favorable position to succeed right out of the gate as the former two-time NFL MVP faces off against a Dolphins defense who ranks near dead last in most key defensive metrics.

Best Ravens vs. Dolphins Prop Bets in TNF Week 9

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Lamar Jackson Over 20.5 Pass Completions (-105) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Before going down with an injury, Lamar Jackson was playing at a very high level as the Baltimore Ravens quarterback ranked near the top of the board in Quarterback EPA per play. While he did excel at staying ahead of the sticks, negative regression loomed large as he was very inefficient with his throws as he also ranked below league average in Turnover Worthy Percentage and in Big Time Throw Percentage.

Fortunately for Jackson, he will have a great opportunity to quickly shake off the rust and round back into dominant form against Miami as he faces off against a Dolphins defense who ranks 31st in Def DVOA and in EPA. Especially with the Dolphins blitzing their linebackers at a heavy rate as this will create wider gaps in their coverage across the middle which will drastically increase the quality of Jackson’s passing lanes.

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Lamar Jackson Longest Completion Over 36.5 Yards (-125) at BetMGM Sportsbook

With the Dolphins incapable of bringing down the quarterback while blitzing at a heavy rate, their defense is vulnerable to getting beat by an explosive play. Their lack of bodies in coverage hurts their ability to disrupt the pass at the point of contact, as well as lower their chances of making the tackle in the open field. Factor in the Dolphins having to spy Jackson and the Ravens' pass catchers will have more room to work with to break out a long run.

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Derrick Henry Over 87.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook

While Jackson was out with an injury, Derrick Henry was tasked with carrying the offense in order to keep them competitive. Even when combating against stacked boxes, Henry was still able to reach the second level of the defense as he ranks above league average in Yards Over Expected per Attempt.

In Thursday night’s contest against Miami, Henry will be able to consistently break through the trenches as he faces off against a Dolphins defense who resides near the bottom of the board in Run Defense Win Rate. Especially with his offensive line opening up wider running lanes for him to exploit as the Ravens front five ranks top-10 in Run Block PFF Grade.

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Derrick Henry Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-210) at BetMGM Sportsbook

When in the red zone, Henry has been the focal point of the offense as the Ravens bull back comfortably leads the team in total Red Zone Rush Attempts. Primarily when inside the five yard line as Henry has received 100% of the workload while converting three of his ten carries into touchdowns.

With the Ravens offense expected to get inside the 20 at a more consistent rate, Henry will see an uptick in his total number of red zone carries which increases his chances of scoring. For some more exposure, escalator bet Henry’s anytime touchdown scorer prop by placing smaller wagers on his alternate totals at the best available odds.

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