After successfully cashing the over in game one of the Eastern Conference Finals, we go back to the well for game two as positive regression looms large over the Carolina Hurricanes offense. With the Florida Panthers also possessing more than enough skill players to stretch out Carolina’s coverage, expect both offenses to pressure each other's net at a consistent rate in what should be a thrilling high scoring affair.
Even though the Carolina Hurricanes were held to just two total goals in game one of the Eastern Conference Finals, positive regression looms large as they actually finished the contest with an Expected Goal of 3.73. A mark that nearly mirrors what the Hurricanes have been averaging throughout the playoffs as they currently average 4.13 Expected Goals per game in All Situations. Logan Blake led the charge with an Expected Goal of 0.77 while three others all managed to generate a mark higher than 0.40.
Even with the Panthers defense excelling in coverage, the Hurricanes versatility will have their back line stretched out thin which helps open up higher quality shooting lanes in front of their net. This will force Sergei Bobrovsky to scramble across the crease in an attempt to wall off the Hurricanes attack which will open up gaps beside him. Expect Carolina’s offense to round back into form and clear the over on their team total. If the Hurricanes total climbs up to a flat three, then reduce the size of your wager.
With the Hurricanes offense projected to round back into form, expect another high scoring affair to take place in game two as the Florida Panthers offense are more than capable of matching their output. The reigning Stanley Cup champions rivaled the Hurricanes in Expected Goals this season as they finished the year ranked second overall in Expected Goals For in All Situations with an average of 3.49 per game. For some more exposure, escalator bet the full game over by placing smaller wagers on the altenerate totals.
Even though Seth Jarvis failed to score a goal in game one, the Hurricanes forward still had no issue with generating high quality scoring opportunities as he finished the contest with an Expected Goal of 0.56. Since being slotted into the same line as Sebastian Aho, Jarvis has excelled at pressuring the net as he gets the opportunity to exploit gaps in coverage while his center pulls defensive attention away from him. Expect Jarvis to continue to pressure the net at a high rate and score a goal in game two of the ECF.
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