With the Buffalo Sabres struggling to defend their net, the Boston Bruins will be able to light up the scoreboard by generating a high volume of shot attempts in front of their crease. Later in the night, we turn our attention towards the Colorado Avalanche as their back line is in a position to thrive by bottling up the Los Angeles Kings who grade out poorly in Expected Goals For.
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| Best NHL Prop Bets Today | BetMGM Sportsbook | Kalshi to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Boston Bruins Team Total Over 2.5 | -170 | Boston Bruins 51% |
| David Pastrnak Anytime Goal Scorer | +155 | Boston Bruins 51% |
| Los Angeles Kings Team Total Under 2.5 | -115 | Colorado Avalanche 61% |
| Tim Stutzle Anytime Goal Scorer | +194 | Ottawa Senators 53% |
| Odds and market prices are accurate as of the time of publishing and subject to change before the event. | ||
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After evening up the series in game two, expect the Bruins to build on their momentum by exploiting the Sabres back line who underwhelm in coverage.
After losing game one in heart breaking fashion, the Boston Bruins managed to mitigate the damage in game two, winning 4-2 while generating over five Expected Goals. A stunning performance when factoring how poor their front line has been this season, a unit who entered the playoffs ranked near dead last in Expected Goals For in All Situations.
Heading into Thursday night, expect the Bruins to continue to light the lamp as they face off against a Buffalo Sabres back line who resides in the bottom half of the board in Expected Goals Against in All Situations and in 5-on-5 Play. Especially with Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen struggling to defend their net, averaging 4.19 Goals Against per game and a .821 Save Percentage in his two starts in the playoffs.
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Even when receiving minimal support from his linemates, David Pastrnak has still been able to play at a high level, averaging 0.39 Expected Goals and 3.39 Shots on Goal per game. With the Sabres incapable of keeping a defender on Pastrnak’s hip, the Bruins forward will be able to create a high volume of shot attempts in front of the net, increasing his chances of scoring.
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With the Los Angeles Kings lacking the versatility that is needed to crack Colorado’s back line, expect the Avalanche to smother their shot attempts for the full duration of the contest.
Even after re-tooling their roster, the Los Angeles Kings front line have been unable to find their footing, ranking near the bottom of the board in Expected Goals For in All Situations. Their lack of depth makes it hard for them to create space in front of the net, fielding just four active players on their roster who average more than 0.25 Expected Goals per game.
Unfortunately for the Kings, their struggles on offense are poised to persist against the betting favorites for the Stanley Cup as the Colorado Avalanche back line ranks in the top-3 in Expected Goals Against in All Situations. With Colorado setting a scoring pace too fast for the Kings to match, increase your exposure on the Avs by placing a smaller wager on them to cover the puck line as well. The Avalanche currently lead the pack in Stanley Cup odds after a dominant regular season that earned them the Presidents' Trophy.
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Even though the Carolina Hurricanes excel in coverage, the Ottawa Senators have been able to pressure their net, generating 4.45 Expected Goals in game two.
Since the start of the regular season, Tim Stutzle has been able to create high quality scoring opportunities at a consistent rate, averaging 0.36 Expected Goals per game. With Brady Tkachuk pulling defensive attention away from him, the width of Stutzle’s shooting lanes on the outside will widen, improving the quality of his shot attempts near the net.
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