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A new episode of Ride the Line with Grant Mitchell and Tanner Kern is now live on all WSN platforms!
Welcome to a new week and a new slate with WSN and the Ride the Line family!
Grant kicks off the new week by picking the over of 9.5 runs in the Houston Astros-Boston Red Sox matchup. Cristian Javier and Chris Sale both have ERAs over 5.00 this month and have been consistently friendly to opposing batters, and the Red Sox play significantly better on their home field than they do on the road (this game is in Boston).
The Red Sox have also hit the over in 11 straight outings, while the Astros have gone over in 10 of their last 12. These teams played a four-game series in Houston last week and went over in all four, and Grant sees no reason why Monday’s meeting can’t continue the trend.
Tanner’s first pick also comes from this game, but he’s taking the Astros’ moneyline. In his words, “Any time you get the Astros for plus-money (on the moneyline), you take it.” He’s also down on Sale who, as a Red Sox fan, has seen a decline over recent seasons and is playing poor ball right now.
The Astros also have the external motivation to perform well now that they have been usurped by the Seattle Mariners in the American League West. Grant is interested to see how they will play since they are not used to being the hunter but understands that it could easily cause them to rise and shine in Boston.
Both co-hosts also then go to the Pacific Northwest to take the Seattle Mariners’ runline for their second picks of the show. Kyle Muller is slated to get the start but has not been productive this season, posting a 1-4 record, 7.28 ERA, and 1.89 WHIP. Adrian Martinez was also originally listed as the starter in some places and could be used in relief, but he has a 5.71 ERA and 1.44 WHIP, and the A’s have not won in any of his 15 appearances.
The Mariners have covered in 21 of their last 29 outings and have been red-hot at the plate. They’ve also got one of the three best bullpens (according to ERA) over the last 30 days and are starting Bryan Woo, whose 4.58 ERA, while not optimal, is significantly lower than the Athletics’ options.
Before diving into their third picks, Grant and Tanner take a pause to talk about the future of the AL representative in the World Series. Tanner likes the Baltimore Orioles, but Grant is concerned about their lack of starting pitching and Felix Bautista’s elbow problem.
At the same time, there are no clear candidates to win the AL. The Astros are not as strong as in years past, the Rangers are falling apart, the Mariners (the co-hosts believe) are on a hot streak but are not legit postseason threats, the Tampa Bay Rays’ pitching staff is decimated, and the Toronto Blue Jays are too wasteful. In many ways, the Orioles have the fewest holes, though no team is perfect.
Grant’s last pick of the day is the San Diego Padres -1.5 against the St. Louis Cardinals. As much as the Padres have disappointed this season and as poor as they have been against the spread recently, they are starting the league leader in ERA, Blake Snell, against Adam Wainwright, who has an 8.61 ERA and 1.99 WHIP.
To go further in-depth on how bad Wainwright has been, he has a 14.73 ERA in four starts this month, gave up six earned runs in 4.2 innings in his last outing, and has given up 3+ earned runs in 15 of his 17 starts. The Cardinals’ offense has also scored the fewest runs of any team in MLB over the past month, which leaves Grant with no reason to believe in them.
Tanner’s last pick is the Los Angeles Dodgers’ moneyline against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Bobby Miller and Zac Gallen have been near-equivalent pitchers this season as far as impressiveness, and Gallen struggled in his lone start against the Dodgers this year.
Gallen is also much worse on the road than he is at home, and the Dodgers are excellent at the plate at home. Tanner is worried the Dodgers are flying home from Boston but still thinks they can win, especially with a bullpen that has climbed into the top three in ERA over the last month.
Check back on Wednesday for another episode of Ride the Line with MLB betting picks and more!
Grant is a sports and sports betting journalist who prides himself on delivering breaking news and insightful analyses of the industry. Grant graduated from Virginia Tech in 2021 and is feverishly pursuing his ambitions in the sports betting field.
In his free time, Grant can be found passionately watching sports, doing a workout, or searching for adventure with his friends.More info on Grant Mitchell
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