Super Bowl Champion Prediction Market: Which Teams Are Most Likely to Top the NFL in 2027?

Setting the Stage

 Prediction market apps have emerged as viable competitors to sportsbooks and sports betting odds by allowing customers to set the likelihood (and price) of different outcomes. New customers who sign up with Kalshi promo code WSN can trade $25 and get $25 in bonus credit, one of the better prediction market bonuses available right now.

While sportsbooks build a vig into their odds, a cut that works like a tax and ensures “the house always wins,” prediction market prices come from real-time supply and demand among traders.

While not always the case, prediction markets can offer customers more profitable means of obtaining what is effectively the same result as they would find at a sportsbook: a paid prediction of which team is going to win the Super Bowl.

We’ll explain more of the similarities and differences between legal sportsbooks and prediction markets, but before we do, let’s look at the real-time Super Bowl probabilities, courtesy of Kalshi.

Kalshi Super Bowl Odds

Super Bowl LXI is still months away, but the best prediction markets already have a new favorite. The San Francisco 49ers lead the Kalshi board after a 6-0 start, with the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs next. The Los Angeles Rams, who opened the season as favorites, have slid out of the top five after a 2-4 start.

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2027 Pro Football Champion

2026-27

• Buffalo 14%
• San Francisco 14%
• Seattle 9%
• Kansas City 8%
• Chicago 7%

Source: Kalshi. Data is automatically updated according to market conditions.

Polymarket Super Bowl Odds

Polymarket US lists the same Super Bowl LXI champion market on a CFTC-regulated exchange, funded with debit cards, Apple Pay, ACH, and bank wire rather than crypto. Prices adjust in real time with order flow, so you can buy and sell positions as each team's season changes, and it's worth comparing its price with Kalshi's before you trade.

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Super Bowl LXI Underdogs

Predicting Super Bowl underdogs is risky, since value only pays off if the outcome actually lands. Last year is the reminder: Seattle and New England were both well down the preseason board and still reached the game. Here are a few lower-priced teams to watch in the 2027 market.

• Baltimore Ravens (7%, trading at 7¢): Baltimore is the third AFC team on the board, behind Buffalo and Kansas City. The Ravens have been near the top of the AFC futures board for several seasons, so at this price the market treats them as a contender rather than a favorite.

• Chicago Bears (6%, trading at 6¢): Chicago is the second NFC team on the Kalshi board behind San Francisco, ahead of both the defending champion Seahawks and the preseason favorite Rams.

• Seattle Seahawks (outside the top five): The defending champions beat New England 29-13 in Super Bowl LX behind 135 rushing yards from MVP Kenneth Walker III, but they already trail San Francisco by three games in the NFC West.

• Los Angeles Rams (outside the top five): The preseason favorites are 2-4 after an 18-16 upset loss to Arizona as double-digit favorites, and injuries have piled up, including Davante Adams for six to 10 weeks. Traders who think the slow start is a blip are getting a far better number than they could in September.

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How to Read Prediction Markets

Learning a new language can be intimidating. However, understanding how to read prediction market probabilities and prices isn't that different from reading betting odds. If you are new to it, our guide to how prediction markets work covers the basics.

Sportsbook odds have two parts: the number and the sign in front of it (+ or -). Bettors must wager $150 to win $100 at -150 odds, or they could risk $100 to win $150 at +150 odds.

Prediction markets simplify everything down to a per-dollar basis with just two options.

• A winning contract: Pays $1

• A losing contract: Pays $0

If a contract costs $0.06, that means that users have to pay $0.06 for a chance to win $1. They will win that $1 if the event that occurs corresponds to the outcome associated with their contract, and they will lose their $0.06 if it doesn’t.

Sportsbook odds can be translated to implied probabilities. For example, +100 indicates there is a 50/50 chance of an event occurring.

Prediction platforms also streamline this by listing the actual probability of the prediction market event. The main difference here is that sportsbook odds include a vig, so even implied probability doesn’t reflect the true likelihood. A sportsbook needs a license in every state it operates in, while a prediction market needs approval from one federal regulator, the CFTC. That's why Super Bowl contracts are available in states like California and Texas, where sports betting isn't legal. You also trade against other users rather than the house, and you can sell a contract before the season ends to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

Understanding Prediction Market Prices

In sports betting, outcomes with odds values preceded by a “-” have a greater than 50% implied chance of winning and are usually (but not always) considered the favorite. Outcomes with a “+” cannot have more than a 50% chance of occurring. 

Prediction markets use $0.50 as the differentiation between favorites and underdogs. Anything below this amount means that the outcome has less than a 50 percent chance of occurring, meaning that the outcome is usually considered an underdog.

However, that could change in markets where there are multiple outcomes. For example, the preseason favorite to win the Super Bowl might only trade at $0.10 per contract.

Understanding prediction value through the lens of sports betting odds can be accomplished by using one of two simple formulas.

Underdogs (below $0.50): (100 ÷ price) - 100

• Example: the 49ers are trading at $0.17

• (100 ÷ 0.17) - 100 = +488

Favorites (above $0.50): -100 × (price ÷ (1 - price))

• Example: a team trading at $0.65 to win a single game

• -100 × (0.65 ÷ 0.35) = -185.7, or about -186

How Do Super Bowl Trading Markets Work?

Purchasing a contract in a Super Bowl market doesn’t bring short-term gratification. The outcome will only settle once the Super Bowl champion is produced, or the user’s predicted outcome becomes impossible (for example, if the selected team fails to make the playoffs).

Probabilities will fluctuate throughout the regular season and playoffs based on the events around the league. Users can still buy and sell contracts in the Super Bowl market, but they can’t change the price of contracts they have already purchased. Championship-winner contracts were the first sports contracts Kalshi listed, in January 2025, and they're among the broad sports contracts that stay permitted under the CFTC's proposed rules.

How to Pick the Super Bowl Winner

Picking the Super Bowl winner is difficult. The most basic math suggests a 1-in-32 (3.1%) chance of picking the future winner, and context only narrows that down so far.

Last year's result is the cautionary tale. Seattle traded at about 2% before last season kicked off, and the Seahawks and Patriots were both far down the board before the season began. This year's Rams are the other reminder: they opened as the clear favorite and started 2-4. That unpredictability is worth remembering before reading too much into any single team's current number, including the 49ers at the top.

The league is also full of parity right now. Even the 49ers, the last unbeaten team, are still more likely to miss out on the title than win it. A single number rarely tells the whole story this far out.

Where to Trade Super Bowl Markets Legally 

Licensed prediction markets are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which ensures the platforms adhere to their governing rules and offer basic consumer protections. The same regulated exchanges also list political prediction markets alongside sports.

• Polymarket lists Super Bowl contracts in every state except Nevada, where a court order blocks its sports contracts. New York has also sued to stop it from operating in the state.

• Kalshi is federally regulated and live in most states, but court orders block its sports contracts in Michigan, Nevada, and Washington. Courts have also cleared Connecticut, Iowa, Maryland, New York, Ohio, Tennessee, and Utah to enforce their gambling laws, so those states could be next. Minnesota passed a law banning prediction markets outright, but a federal judge blocked it before it took effect.

• Crypto.com is legal in 41 states. It is restricted in New York, Nevada, Ohio, Michigan, Arizona, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Illinois.

• OG.com, which is powered by Crypto.com, is legal in every state except for Arizona and New York.

• Underdog, which runs its Predict markets through Crypto.com's CFTC-regulated CDNA exchange, is live in 35 states plus Washington, DC, and is built around sports specifically, often in states without legal sportsbooks. Tennessee ordered it to stop offering sports contracts on Oct. 9, and Underdog has sued the state.

Prediction markets accept traders from age 18, while most state-licensed sportsbooks require 21, and New York and Missouri are pushing to apply the 21 limit to prediction markets too.

Trade Responsibly

Trading event contracts carries real financial risk. If it stops being fun, call or text the National Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-MY-RESET.