Super Bowl Champion Prediction Market: Which Teams Are Most Likely to Top the NFL in 2027?

Setting the Stage

 Prediction market apps have emerged as viable competitors to sportsbooks and sports betting odds by allowing customers to set the likelihood (and price) of different outcomes. New customers who sign up with Kalshi referral code WSN can trade $25 and get up to $500 in bonus credit, one of the better prediction market bonuses available right now.

While sportsbooks use a system of odds that impose a vig – which is like a tax, and ensures that “the house always wins” – prediction markets are the result of real-time customer input based on supply and demand.

While not always the case, prediction markets can offer customers more profitable means of obtaining what is effectively the same result as they would find at a sportsbook: a paid prediction of which team is going to win the Super Bowl.

We’ll explain more of the similarities and differences between legal sportsbooks and prediction markets, but before we do, let’s look at the real-time Super Bowl probabilities, courtesy of Kalshi.

Kalshi Super Bowl Predictions

The 2027 Super Bowl is still months away, but the best prediction markets are already pricing a wide-open field, with more than $66 million traded on the Kalshi champion market. One team has separated from the pack. The Los Angeles Rams lead every other contender at 16%, a full eight points clear of the next team on the board, while last season's champion sits well back after a quiet start to the trading year.

2027 Pro Football Champion

2026-27

• Buffalo 12%
• Los Angeles R 12%
• Baltimore 8%
• San Francisco 7%
• Seattle 7%

Source: Kalshi. Data is automatically updated according to market conditions.

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Super Bowl LXI Underdogs

Predicting Super Bowl underdogs is risky, since value only pays off if the outcome actually lands. Last year is the reminder: Seattle and New England were both well down the preseason board and still reached the game. Here are a few lower-priced teams to watch in the 2027 market.

• Buffalo Bills (7%, trading at 7¢): Buffalo is priced level with Baltimore but ticked down a point in the latest trading. The Bills remain a perennial contender, and any dip in their number tends to attract traders who expect them back in the AFC hunt.

• Kansas City Chiefs (6%, trading at 6¢): A 6% price on the Chiefs is a notable discount by their recent standards, given they represented the AFC in five of the last six Super Bowls before last season. The market is fading them further than it has in years, which is exactly what makes them an underdog worth watching.

• Dallas Cowboys (5%, trading at 5¢): Dallas is up a point in the latest trading, one of the few movers on the board. At 5% they sit in the cluster of teams the market sees as live but unproven, and their number is trending the right way.

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How to Read Prediction Markets

Learning a new language can be intimidating. However, understanding how to read prediction market probabilities and prices isn't that different from reading betting odds. If you are new to it, our guide to how prediction markets work covers the basics.

Sportsbooks indicate how much money is required to win $100 with two parts of their odds, the numeric value, and the preceding sign (+ or -). Bettors must wager $150 to win $100 at -150 odds, or they could risk $100 to win $150 at +150 odds.

Prediction markets simplify everything down to a per-dollar basis with just two options.

• A winning contract: Pays $1

• A losing contract: Pays $0

If a contract costs $0.06, that means that users have to pay $0.06 for a chance to win $1. They will win that $1 if the event that occurs corresponds to the outcome associated with their contract, and they will lose their $0.06 if it doesn’t.

Sportsbook odds can be translated to implied probabilities. For example, +100 indicates there is a 50/50 chance of an event occurring.

Prediction platforms also streamline this by listing the actual probability of the prediction market event. The main difference here is that sportsbook odds include a vig, so even implied probability doesn’t reflect the true likelihood. 

Understanding Prediction Market Prices

In sports betting, outcomes with odds values preceded by a “-” have a greater than 51% chance of winning and are usually (but not always) considered the favorite. Outcomes with a “+” cannot have more than a 50% chance of occurring. 

Prediction markets use $0.50 as the differentiation between favorites and underdogs. Anything below this amount means that the outcome has less than a 50 percent chance of occurring, meaning that the outcome is usually considered an underdog.

However, that could change in markets where there are multiple outcomes. For example, the preseason favorite to win the Super Bowl might only trade at $0.10 per contract.

Understanding prediction value through the lens of sports betting odds can be accomplished by using one of two simple formulas.

Underdogs (below $0.50): (100 / (price 100)) 100 - 100

• Example: the Seahawks are trading at $0.10

• (100 / (.10 (100)) 100 - 100 = +900

Favorites (above $0.50): -1 (Price / (1 - Price)) 100

• Example: the Chiefs are trading at $0.65

• -1 (.65 / (1 - .65)) 100 = -185.7 (~-186)

How do Super Bowl Trading Markets Work?

Purchasing a contract in a Super Bowl market doesn’t bring short-term gratification. The outcome will only settle once the Super Bowl champion is produced, or the user’s predicted outcome becomes impossible (for example, if the selected team fails to make the playoffs).

Probabilities will fluctuate throughout the regular season and playoffs based on the events around the league. Users can still buy and sell contracts in the Super Bowl market, but they can’t change the price of contracts they have already purchased.

How to Pick the Super Bowl Winner

Picking the Super Bowl winner is difficult. The most basic math suggests a 1-in-32 (3.1%) chance of picking the future winner, and context only cleans that up so far.

Last year's result is the cautionary tale. Seattle's championship run was one of the least likely in league history based on preseason pricing, and the Seahawks and Patriots were both far down the board before the season began. That unpredictability is worth remembering before reading too much into any single team's current number, including the Rams at the top.

The league is also full of parity right now, which is part of why the market is so tightly packed below the Rams: seven different teams sit within three points of each other from 8% down to 5%. A single number rarely tells the whole story this far out.

Where to Trade Super Bowl Markets Legally 

Licensed prediction markets are regulated by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission, which ensures the platforms adhere to their governing rules and offer basic consumer protections. The same regulated exchanges also list political prediction markets alongside sports.

• Polymarket is available in every state except Nevada, though its sports contracts can vary by state as legal disputes with individual regulators play out.

• Kalshi is legal in all 50 states as a federally regulated exchange. Several states have moved to restrict access to sports contracts specifically. As of August 2026 that list includes Arizona, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Montana, New Jersey, Nevada and Ohio, while Minnesota has passed a law banning prediction market platforms outright, currently facing a federal challenge. The situation is moving, so check Kalshi directly for current availability.

• Crypto.com is legal in 41 states. It is restricted in New York, Nevada, Ohio, Michigan, Arizona, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Illinois.

• OG.com, which is powered by Crypto.com, is legal in every state except for Arizona and New York.

• Underdog, which runs its Predict markets through Crypto.com's CFTC-regulated CDNA exchange, is live in 35 states plus Washington, DC, and is built around sports specifically, often in states without legal sportsbooks.